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Falcons vs. Cowboys Free Pick | Preview

Atlanta vs. Dallas

Mitch Wilson

Mitch Wilson

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-2)
NFL Football: Sunday October 25, 2009 4:15 PM EST
The Line: Dallas Cowboys -4

The Dallas Cowboys look to regroup following a bye week as the red hot Atlanta Falcons come to town.


Dallas has been shaky at best this season and could have easily found themselves with one more loss and one less win but they managed to get the win in overtime against Kansas City. Tony Romo has been erratic and while getting rid of Terrell Owens who was seen as a disturbance to the team may have sounded like a great idea at the time, the Cowboys seem to be lacking the day in and day out home run threat. Miles Austin had a minster day last time out but can he be the guy every game? The Roy Williams trade has failed to pay dividends for the Cowboys and the running game has been bruised. The Cowboys can only hope the bye week healed the injuries as a consistent running game should help Romo immensely. The Cowboy defense is allowing close to 20 points per game and 357 yards. While these numbers are pretty impressive, they haven’t been as effective creating sacks and turnovers.

The Atlanta Falcons are looking lie a definite playoff team and a contender for at least the NFC title game. I talk about it every week but the trio of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White are as exciting as a young nucleus as there is in the NFL and the addition of Tony Gonzalez has made this team even better than they were a year ago when they were a playoff team. The Atlanta defense has been stingy and hard hitting. Last week against Chicago the defense bent a few times but when it came time to make a stand they did so several times forcing fumbles and stopping the Bears short of the endzone including with time running out.

Dallas is 4-1 against the spread following a bye week and 6-2 against the spread against NFC teams but they are 0-4 against the spread against teams with a winning record. Atlanta is 4-1 against the spread so far this season and 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 as a road underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points.

If the week of rest means that much then I can see where Dallas is favored but to me it just looks like this line is inverted and the wrong team is favored. Getting points with the Falcons seems to be an easy choice.

Mitch’s Picks: Atlanta Falcons +4

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  1. This is a key game for the Cowboys as it could actually define their season from this point on. A win puts them in the thick of the NFC East race, but a loss could start a downward spiral they probably won’t be able to stop.