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Falcons vs. Patriots O/U Pick/Preview

Atlanta at New England

John Ryan

John Ryan

1:00 EST Kick-off

My Ai Simulator has a 3* graded play UNDER in this game. It shows a 74% probability that 44 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a strong system hitting 71% winners for a 48-20 mark since 1983. Play under with any team against the total off a road loss in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.


Here is a slight variation of this system that has produced even better results with a 33-11 record for 75% winners since 1983. Play under with any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off a home win in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. AiS also shows an 85% probability that Atlanta will gain between 5 and 5.5 yards per play. Note that Atlanta is 5-1 UNDER in games where they gain 5 to 5.5 yards per play. AiS shows an 88% probability that NE will allow 3.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt. Note that NE, in that role, are 6-1 UNDER over the past 3 seasons.

The Falcons defense will be able to control the Line of Scrimmage (LOS). The Flacons use a 4-3 defense, but it is certainly possible, given NE inability to run the ball, that Atlanta may use a 3-4 scheme periodically. That possibility alone forces Brady to make another defensive read at the LOS and the 3-4 can be easily disguised as well. Atlanta FS Coleman and SS Decoud are very good safeties and have exceptional quickness in zone blitz plays. In sum, Atlanta can control the LOS and will be able to have a significant advantage in TOP.

No doubt that the Falcons have nearly every matchup advantage when on offense. More importantly, their offensive schemes will be goal oriented in taking time off of the clock and achieving long grueling drives. NE utilizes qa 3-4 scheme and Atlanta’s OL will be able to control the LOS. LT Baker will make it very tough for DE Green to get any pressure on QB Ryan. The combination fo fundamentals and the AiS projections make this game take a 17-10 feel.

Take the UNDER.

Ryan’s CFB plays have been on fire sporting a 23-6 ATS mark going back to the beginning of last year’s bowl season. He nailed 3* dog Florida State, 10* High Noon Titan Massacre on Kansas, and won his 15* Dog of the Month on Nebraska. He will have another fantastic money making weekend planned for so be sure to get ALL of his plays and you will be very glad you did.


Comments Are Welcome…

John Ryan has been handicapping baseball, football, and basketball for over fifteen years. He has won several National contests and has placed in top-5’s in countless others.

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