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Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans Free NFL Betting Picks

Pro Football Gambling – Falcons vs Texans

The Texans (8-3) has won 5 straight, which is their longest winning streak in team history, but getting to 6 straight will not be easy, as they face a 7-4 Falcons’ team and they will be starting their 3rd string QB.

Venue / Stadium: Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, December 4, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Falcons -145 / Texans +125
Spread (ATS): Falcons -3
Over/Under: 38.5

Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans Preview

T.J. Yates is now the starter since Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart are out with injuries and even though Houston won last week the Texans only had 47 yards in the 2nd half when Yates took over. The Falcons need a win to keep pace with the 8-3 Saints in the NFC South. NFL lines have the Falcons as 3-point away favorites with a total of 38.5.

In their last games the Texans beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-13 and the Falcons beat the Minnesota Vikings 24-14.

With their inexperienced QB starting in this game the Texans may lead on the rushing game more, which is not a bad thing since RB Adrian Foster has averaged 156.6 yards per game from scrimmage with 8 TD in his last 5 games. Still, he will be facing the strength of the Falcons’ defense, which is their 2nd ranked run defense.

WR Andre Johnson is back from his hamstring injury, but only had 2 catches last week. Yates may have to go to the air if the stellar Atlanta run defense can stuff the run and the Falcons only rank 23rd in the league defending the pass.

The Falcons have a well-balanced offense ranking 11th in the league in passing yards per game and 14th in rushing yards per game. QB Matt Ryan is playing well and Houston and their 2nd ranked passing defense will have to key on the trio of WR Roddy White, WR Julio Jones, and TE Tony Gonzalez, who can all make the big play down the field. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Atlanta RB Michael Turner struggled against the solid run defense of the Vikings and things do not get any easier facing the Texans, who have the league’s 4th ranked rushing defense.

The Falcons’ offense has not look great in the last 3 games, as they have failed to score over 24 points even though they have won 2 of those games. While the Texans turn to a rookie QB in Yates their defense ranks 2nd in the league in points allowed and ranks 1st in opponents yards allowed.

Betting Trends

This season the Falcons are 4-6-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-8 and the Texans are 7-3-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-7.
The Falcons are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against team with a winning record, and have an Under record of 7-0 in their last 7 games.
The Texans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, and have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.

Jason’s Pick: Houston has a great defense and Adrian Foster in the backfield, but I do not think they will be able to move the chains with Yates under center. Take the Falcons to win and cover in this non-conference match up and take the Over as well, as I think the Falcons offense will come alive.

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About Jason Green

Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.