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Dave B’s Free NFL Picks: 2013 Season Win Totals Odds & Leans

Win Total Predictions

It’s June – never too early to talk about the NFL and what could play out when the season starts in September. Offseason workouts have begun and things are starting to take shape including the oddmakers’ views of who should thrive and who could tumble this upcoming season.

Let’s take a look at a few of the teams that offer a bit of value when looking at the Over/Under of some teams’ projected win totals. There are definitely some that are projected to high and a few that are not being given enough love by Vegas.

The Overs:

Chicago Bears – Over 8.5 wins (-145)

The Bears have a new Coach in camp this year – Marc Trestman is supposed to significantly upgrade an offense that has underachieved the past few seasons. Chicago’s success however is tied directly to the health of Jay Cutler – a player that always seems to go down at precisely the wrong time of the season.

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I like the offense-first approach of the Bears this year heading into the season and we all know that the defense will hold up their end of the bargain. A 9-7 season or better certainly isn’t too much to ask from a team that should in all likelihood make the playoffs this upcoming campaign.

Carolina Panthers – Over 6.5 wins (-130)

The Panthers played about as poorly as they could have last season and they still finished with seven wins. Expect them to be much better on both sides of the ball this year – they just have to be. Cam Newton should be over his sophomore slump and the defense should have a better time this upcoming year. It all adds up to another 7-9 or 8-8 season for the Panthers – Over the 6.5 win total.

Kansas City Chiefs – Over 6.5 wins (-130)

KC upgraded in a big way during the offseason – possible the two biggest impact moves were made in the names of Andy Reid as Coach and Alex Smith at QB. This team still has Jamaal Charles and they still live in a division that includes San Diego and Oakland – a recipe for a .500 season at very least. 7-9 would be a colossal disappointment – you have to like the Chiefs to be .500 team – don’t you?

New Orleans Saints – Over 9.5 wins (-115)

The Saints get Sean Payton back from suspension – that’s good for a couple of wins all by itself. Add in the fact that their disappointing season from last year led to a rather easy schedule for the Saints. New Orleans’ defense will be better and Drew Brees is certainly due for a bounce back after a somewhat disappointing 2012. New Orleans is always good for 10 wins when Sean Payton is at the helm – this year should be no different. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Unders:

Washington Redskins – Under 9 wins (-120)

All of the reports out of Skins OTAs seem positive – RG III appears on track to start the season healthy. That said it is no guarantee that his surgically repaired knee will be back to “normal” all season long. Sophomore slumps are real things for NFL QBs as well – just ask Cam Newton! Washington plays in the always tough NFL East which, on paper looks like it may be vastly improved this year. The Skins haven’t had back-to-back winning seasons since 1991-92 – I see a slight slide this year.

Indianapolis Colts – Under 8 wins (+120)

If I think that RG III is headed for a sophomore slump, I have no choice but to think that the Colts are due for a bit of a letdown this year too. This team rode the emotion of their cancer-afflicted coach last year and they won seven games by four or less points. The odds will even themselves out this year and the Colts will experience the adversity they were supposed to suffer last year.

Pittsburgh Steelers – Under 10 wins (EVEN)

The Steelers lost a few more pieces of what had made them successful the last few seasons – change likely will catch up to them this year. Add in the fact that their division is increasingly competitive and that Ben Roethlisberger is almost a shoe-in for a significant injury and double digit wins looks like an uncertainty in Steel-Town.

Arizona Cardinals – Under 6 wins (-120)

The Cardinals won five games last year and did virtually nothing to improve their team in the offseason. Bruce Arians replaces Ken Whisenhunt as Coach and Carson Palmer was acquired to play QB. I’m not sure if these are the upgrades necessary to make this team competitive. The NFC West looks strong again and Arizona appears as though they are the worst of the bunch. Arizona could challenge for the worst record in the NFL this year – Under 6 wins is a good play.


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About DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.