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2011 NFL Gambling: Lines | Week 9 Matchups & Predictions

2011 Week 9 NFL Gambling Lines: Top 3 Matchups and Predictions

As we reach the halfway point of the NFL regular season, the odds makers continue to keep their lines razor sharp. For the second week in-a-row, six favorites and six underdogs each covered with one game ending as a ‘push’.

The home teams had a slight edge with seven games going their way and the total stayed ‘under’ in 10 of the 13 games.

My top plays last week were also evenly split with a record of 1-1-1. After crunching the numbers for this week’s NFL matchups, I was able to uncover the value in a few of the spreads to bring you my top plays for Week 9 in the NFL.

All odds quoted are courtesy of Bodog SportsBook

Sunday, November 6

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (-1)

The Jets went into last week’s bye with a two-game winning streak that raised their record to 4-3 straight-up (3-4 against the spread). Their offense is still struggling to find ways to consistently move the ball, but it has done a good job at making the most of its opportunities with an average of 24.6 points a game.

Buffalo has cooled a bit since its 3-0 start, but a 23-0 win last week over Washington last Sunday as a four-point home favorite has it at 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS on the year. The Bills are still ranked third in the NFL in scoring with an average of 30.1 points a game.

The road team in this series is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games.

The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips upstate to Buffalo.

New York finds a way to tighten things up in the AFC East with the outright win on the road. The Pick: New York 27  vs.   Buffalo 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (-9)

Tampa Bay comes in well-rested at 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) after an extended road game in London two weeks ago in which it lost to Chicago 24-18 as a 1.5-point underdog. This followed an impressive 26-20 win over the Saints as a six-point home underdog. In that game the Buccaneers built a 20-10 lead at the half and hung on for the win.

The Saints are coming off a stunning 31-21 defeat as 13.5 road favorites at the hands of the previously winless St. Louis.

This dropped them to 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) and a half-game ahead of Tampa and Atlanta in the NFC South. Rams’ running back Steven Jackson torched the Saints for 159 yards on the ground in Sunday’s loss.

The road team in this series is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the underdog is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 games. Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to the Big Easy.

New Orleans will not lose two in-a-row to the Bucs, but it will not be able to cover a nine-point spread. The Pick: New Orleans 28 vs.  Tampa Bay 20

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders (-7.5)

It appears that the entire country is fixated on the ‘Tim Tebow’ experiment in Denver, but has anyone bothered to notice that the Broncos are ranked 30th in the league in points allowed; giving-up 28.6 points a game. Maybe that has something to do with their 2-5 record both SU and ATS.

With San Diego stumbling in its last few games, the door to the top of the AFC West remains wide-open for the Raiders at 4-3 SU (5-2 ATS).

They are coming off a 45-10 beatdown at the hands of Detroit as three-point road underdogs, but they are a much better team than that recent showing and have already beaten Denver 23-20 earlier this season as three-point road underdogs.

Denver is 8-22 ATS in its last 30 games against the AFC West and 0-4 ATS in the last four games against Oakland.

The Raiders are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against the division.

This is a perfect chance for Hue Jackson’s team to get back-on-track in front of the home-town crowd. The Pick: Oakland 24 vs.  Denver 13

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About Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.



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