2011 Week 6 NFL Gambling Lines: Top 3 Matchups and Predictions
The odds makers continue to keep the lines sharp as last week seven favorites and six underdogs covered against the spread.
Thing were also tight for home and away teams as six road teams won ATS. The ‘totals’ trend swung back towards higher scoring games, as nine of the 13 games went ‘over’ the line.
The numbers heading into this week have been once again thoroughly analyzed in an effort to mine out the value in the current spreads. The result is a brief betting preview and prediction for my top three picks for Week 6 in the NFL.
All odds quoted are courtesy of Bodog SportsBook
Sunday, October 16
Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Washington Redskins
Just about everything and anything has gone wrong in Philadelphia’s shocking 1-4 start (both SU and ATS), but the most glaring statistic is a turnover ratio of -10. The Eagles were one of the best in the league last season as not only creating opportunities on defense, but protecting the ball on offense.
Washington is the early leader in the NFC East at 3-1 SU (3-1 ATS) and coming into this game fresh off a bye week. The Redskins’ defense has been rock-solid; giving up an average of just 15.8 points a game which is third-best in the league. This has helped mask an offense that is ranked 22nd in the league in scoring.
The Eagles are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five trips to Washington and the road team in this series is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four games.
The Pick: Philadelphia 28 vs. Washington 24
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
Rookie quarterback Cam Newton has brought a whole new level of excitement and enthusiasm to Carolina, but it has yet to translate into wins. The Panthers are 1-4 SU, but have been able to keep things close with a 4-0-1 record ATS. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Atlanta’s roller-coaster season has this team losing and winning every other week for a combined record of 2-3 SU (1-4 ATS). Last week the Falcons had an early 14-0 lead on Green Bay, but ended up losing 25-14 as six-point home underdogs, so this week is shaping up as a win.
The Falcons are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 games against Carolina at home and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall. The favorite in this series is 5-1 ATS in the last six games and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six as well.
The Pick: Atlanta 28 vs. Carolina 23
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-6)
San Francisco has very quietly compiled a 4-1 SU record in its first five games and is 4-0-1 ATS. Its impressive 24-23 come-from-behind victory over Philadelphia as a 9.5-point road underdog in Week 4 served as a springboard to a 48-3 romp over Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The league’s biggest surprise comes into this game a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Detroit is starting to add more and more people to a suddenly crowded bandwagon. Last week on Monday Night Football, it added a bunch of new believers with a 24-13 win over Chicago as a 6.5-home favorite.
The six point spread should serve the 49ers well this week as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of more than 3.5 points, while the Lions are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games as a favorite of 3.5 points or more.
The Pick: Detroit 23 vs. San Francisco 20
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