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2011 NFL Gambling: Lines | Week 4 Matchups & Predictions

2011 Week 4 NFL Gambling Lines: Top 3 Matchups and Predictions

It was a ‘Dog Day Afternoon’ last Sunday as 10 of 15 underdogs either covered the spread or won their game outright. Washington made it 11-of-16 for the week after covering the four-point spread against Dallas on Monday night.

The total line swung heavily towards the ‘under’ after favoring the ‘over’ the first two weeks with 10 of the 16 games staying below the line. I continued my early season slide in Week 3 and am now 3-5-1 on my top picks.

After once again crunching the numbers for this week’s games, the following is a brief betting preview and prediction for my top three picks on the schedule.

All odds quoted are courtesy of Bodog SportsBook

Sunday, October 2

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1)

Over/Under: 39

Tennessee has strung together back-to-back victories after an ugly 16-14 loss to Jacksonville as a one-point road underdog on opening day. The Titans have been getting it done behind a resurgent Matt Hasselbeck, who has thrown for 932 yards and five touchdowns, however the loss of wide receiver Kenny Britt for the season with a torn-up knee is a major loss moving forward.

Cleveland is also 2-1 straight-up on the year with its 17-16 win over Miami as a one-point home favorite. The Browns running game should get a boost this week with the expected return on Peyton Hillis, who sat out last week’s game due to illness.

The Titans are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU win. Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six Week 4 games and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games in October.

The Pick: Cleveland 20     Tennessee 17

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (-4)

Over/Under: 45

Pittsburgh bounced back from its 35-7 opening day debacle in Baltimore as a one-point road underdog with a convincing 24-0 shutout of Seattle as a 13.5-point home favorite. The Steelers looked less than sharp this past Sunday night in a 23-20 win over the unmanned Colts as 10.5-point road favorites. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Houston suffered its first setback of the season last week after ending up on the wrong end of a 40-33 shootout with New Orleans as a 3.5-point road underdog. The Texans have gotten a huge effort from running back Ben Tate in place of Arian Foster, who continues to struggle with a strained hamstring.

The Steelers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS following an ATS loss. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite, but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.

The Pick: Houston 24      Pittsburgh 21

 

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-8)

Over/Under: 45

Many people are already penciling-in Miami as the front-runner in the Andrew Luck-sweepstakes after a 0-3 start, but its offense is actually 12th in the league in total yards and seventh in rushing, which is a dramatic improvement from last season.

San Diego is off to a 2-1 start SU, but is 0-3 ATS. It needed a dramatic comeback to get by Minnesota 24-17 on opening day as a nine-point home favorite, and squeaked-by Kansas City 20-17 at home as a 14.5-point favorite.

The Dolphins are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as road underdogs, while the Chargers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as favorites. Miami is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the two and 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to San Diego.

The Pick: Miami 21         San Diego 20

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About Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.


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