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2011 NFL Gambling: Lines | Week 13 Matchups & Predictions

2011 Week 13 Free Picks

With a full slate of 16 games last week including three on Thanksgiving , it proved to be a good weekend to take a trip with 10 road teams covering against the spread. Only four homes teams covered as two games ended in a ‘push’.

The favorites and underdogs were evenly split at 7-7-2 and the total line was also an even split with eight games going ‘over’ the total and eight staying ‘under’.

My top picks for Week 12 came up a bit short with a 1-2 record overall, so it was back to the drawing board to thoroughly crunch the numbers in an effort to mine out the value in this week lines. Here are a few more top plays for Week 13.

All odds quoted are courtesy of JustBet.com.

Sunday, December 4

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Rookie quarterback Cam Newton created as early stir for the Panthers, but reality has set in with six losses in their last eight games to fall to 3-8 straight-up (6-5 against the spread) on the year. The main problem has been a defense that is giving-up an average of 27.7 points a game.

Tampa Bay’s trip to London earlier this season has proven to be its downfall with five straight losses since heading overseas. It is now 4-7 on the year both SU and ATS. The Buccaneers’ defense has been almost as bad as Carolina’s; giving-up an average of 26.5 points a game.

The Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road. Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against the NFC South. The favorite in this series is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

The Pick: Tampa Bay 24 vs. Carolina 20

Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Houston Texans

Even though it is December, the heat remains on in Atlanta as it tries and keep pace with the red-hot Saints in the NFC South Division race. The Falcons have won five of their last six games, but still trails New Orleans by one game with an overall record of 7-4 SU (4-6-1 ATS).

Houston is tied for the best record in the AFC at 8-3 SU and is 7-3-1 ATS, but that was with a healthy Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart. Both quarterbacks have been lost for the season, so it will be up to rookie T.J. Yates to keep the Texans on pace to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games on the road and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in December. The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last four games in December.

The Pick: Atlanta 20 vs. Houston 13

St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (-13)

The Rams season started on a bad note with an injury to Steven Jackson on opening day and now the list has grown to a point where it reads more like a lineup card. The result has been a very predictable 2-9 record both SU and ATS on a team that was not that deep with talent to begin with.

San Francisco lost the battle of the Harbaugh brothers in a 16-6 setback to Baltimore on Thanksgiving night as a 3.5-road favorite, but with some much needed rest is more than ready to resume its march to the postseason.

St. Louis is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog and the 49ers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as favorites. The favorite in this series is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the Rams are 3-7 in their last 10 trips to San Francisco.

The Pick: San Francisco 34 vs. St. Louis 13

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About Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.