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2011 NFL Gambling: Lines | Week 11 Matchups & Predictions

Dave Schwab weighs in on the second week of the NFL 2011 season. A brief review of the current Week 11 point spreads and NFL Week 11 over/under lines for all the games being featured in Week eleven…

2011 Week 11 NFL Gambling Lines: Top 3 Matchups and Predictions

The second half of the NFL regular season got underway last week and it proved to be beneficial to the visitors and low-scoring games. With a full slate of 16 games, 10 road teams covered against the spread and 10 games stayed ‘under’ the total. The favorites and underdogs were evenly split at eight games apiece.

My top plays for Week 10 had mixed results with a 1-2 record overall, so it was back to the drawing board in an effort to mine out the value in this week lines. After thoroughly crunching the numbers, I was able to uncover a few more top plays for Week 11. All odds quoted are courtesy of BetOnline.

Sunday, November 20

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (-1)

Buffalo’s season is on the brink this week after getting hammered by Dallas last Sunday 44-7 as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Bills have now lost four of their last six games straight-up after a promising 3-0 start. They are 4-4-1 against the spread.

Miami is starting to show some signs of life after a disastrous 0-7 SU start (1-5-1 ATS) with back-to-back victories including a 20-9 win over Washington last Sunday as a four-point home favorite. This followed a 31-3 pasting of Kansas City as a four-point road underdog.

The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss, while the Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win. Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 games against Miami. The Bills circle the wagons this week in South Beach with a solid win. The Pick: Buffalo 24 vs. Miami 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers (-14)

Just like a bad offensive line, Tampa Bay has had a couple of false starts this season. After reeling off three straight wins earlier in the season it was thumped by San Francisco 48-3 as a 2.5-point road underdog. It bounced back with an impressive 26-20 win over New Orleans as a six-point home favorite, but has lost its last three to fall to 4-5 SU (3-6 ATS) on the year. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Like a well-oiled machine, Green Bay keeps rolling through the regular season with win-after-win. The Packers moved to 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS with a 45-7 rout of Minnesota as a 13-point home favorite this past Monday night. The main thing they have to fight through on a short week is over-confidence heading into this week’s game.

The Buccaneers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs. The Packers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as home favorites. Head-to-head, Tampa Bay is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Complacency sets in a bit this week in anticipation of a Thanksgiving Day showdown with Detroit which allows Tampa just enough of an opening to cover with the 14 points. The Pick: Green Bay 28 vs. Tampa Bay 17

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (9.5)

Arizona has sandwiched three wins around six losses including a huge 21-17 come-from-behind victory last week against Philadelphia as a 13.5-point road underdog. The Cardinals may actually be better off with John Skelton at quarterback after turning in two solid performances in place of the injured Kevin Kolb.

San Francisco racked-up its eighth win of the season against just one loss with a thrilling 27-20 victory over the New York Giants as a four-point home favorite. The win moved its record to a very profitable 8-0-1 ATS. This is another team that could get caught looking ahead this week with a road game against Baltimore looming on the schedule.

The road team in this series is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10. Much like Tampa Bay, the Cardinals catch the 49ers napping a bit this Sunday and are able to keep things close enough to cover. The Pick: San Francisco 26 vs. Arizona 19

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By Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.