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2011 NFL Gambling: Lines | Week 7 Matchups & Predictions

2011 Week 7 NFL Gambling Lines: Top 3 Matchups and Predictions

The odds makers gave us a bit of breathing room last week as eight favorites verse just four underdogs covered against the spread. The same trend held true for the home and away teams as just four road teams won ATS. The ‘under’ was the play of the week with 10 of 13 games staying ‘under’ the total line.

After going a perfect 3-0 with my top plays last week, I once again thoroughly analyzed the numbers in an effort to mine out the value in this week’s spreads. The result is a brief betting preview and prediction for my top three picks for Week 7 in the NFL.

All odds quoted are courtesy of Bodog SportsBook.

Sunday, October 23

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)

This game suddenly becomes a crucial test for a Houston team that started 2-0, but has fallen to 3-3 SU after two straight losses. Injuries have taken their toll on this team and it looks like All-Pro wide receiver Andre Johnson will miss his third-straight game with a hamstring injury.

Tennessee comes in to this one at 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) and well-rested after a bye week. Matt Hasselbeck is off to a strong start with 1,414 yards passing and nine touchdowns and the Titans’ defense is ranked sixth in the league in points allowed.

The Texans are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Tennessee. The home team in this series is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games.

The Pick: Tennessee 27 vs. Houston 20

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-2)

There will be a change at quarterback this week for Washington as John Beck will get the start for an ineffective Rex Grossman. This team’s real strength so far has been on the defensive side of the ball with a unit that is ranked sixth in the NFL overall and third in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 16.6 a game.

Cam Newton’s early-season fireworks have subsided for now, as the rookie quarterback has thrown five interceptions while completing less that 60 percent of his throws in his last three games. Carolina’s defense is ranked near the bottom of the league in points allowed; giving-up an average of 27.2 points a game. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Redskins are 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games overall as well as in their last four trips to Carolina. The underdog in this series is a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.

The Free NFL Pick: Washington 21 vs. Carolina 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Nobody would ever refer this year’s Steelers as a finesse team, but they have opened the season at 4-2 straight-up (2-4 against the spread) behind a workman-like offense and a shutdown defense. Pittsburgh is ranked 10th in the league in average yards per game and first in average yards allowed.

Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb’s early reviews have not been that great with the ex-Eagle completing less than 60 percent of his passes and turning the ball over nine times on the way to a 1-4 start SU (2-3 ATS).

The Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record.

The Pick: Pittsburgh 24 vs. Arizona 14

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About Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.