NFL Week 1 Preview & Predictions
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The 2010 NFL season kicks off this week and it is time to dig deep into the stats to find out which teams have the edge against the spread and which game totals are staying ‘under’ or going ‘over’ as there is always some easy money to be made early in the season.
Here is a brief preview and pick for 15 games in Week 1.
All lines provided by Sportsinteraction.com.
Sunday, Sep. 12
1:00 p.m. (ET)
Denver at Jacksonville (-2 ½)
Over/Under Line 39 ½
Over the years these two teams have been matched evenly with one another. In the last 10 games Jacksonville has covered the spread in six. Denver appears to have the edge talent-wise heading into this season giving then the slight edge. The Pick: Denver +2 ½ and UNDER.
Miami (-3) at Buffalo
Over/Under Line 38.5
The home team has won seven out of the last 10 games SU between these two and has gone just 4-5-1 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of these ten. This matchup favors Miami’s rush defense against a one dimensional Buffalo offense that can only run the ball. The Pick: Miami-3 and UNDER.
Detroit at Chicago (-6)
Over/Under Line 43
Chicago is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS against Detroit in its last 10 games. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of the last 10 games with one push. It could still take a few weeks until both these teams’ offense begins to click, bucking the recent scoring trend in this game The Pick: Detroit +6 and UNDER.
Indianapolis (-2 ½) at Houston
Over/Under Line 47
Houston is 1-9 SU and 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games against Indianapolis. With QB Peyton Manning and the pretty much the same roster as last season there is no real reason for this trend to change. The Pick: Indianapolis -2 ½ and OVER.
Atlanta (-2 ½ ) at Pittsburgh
Over/Under Line 38
The last time these two teams met was in 2006 with Atlanta coming away with a 41-38 win as a 2 ½ point home dog. QB Dennis Dixon gets the start in place of Ben Roethlisberger, who is serving a four game suspension, putting the Steelers at a distinct disadvantage against a very good Falcon team. The Pick: Atlanta -2 ½ and OVER.
Oakland at Tennessee (-6 ½)
Over/Under Line 40 ½
Tennessee is 6-4 SU but just 4-6 ATS against the Raiders in its last 10 games. The Raiders are actually 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Titans. On paper, Oakland appears to be a much better team this season and should be able to keep this one close. The Pick: Oakland + 6 ½ and UNDER.
Bet on the Packers vs Eagles NOW!
Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3)
Over/Under Line 40 ½
These two teams have not played each other since 2006 with the Bucs coming away with a 22-7 win as a 3 ½ point road dog. Cleveland won its last four games of the 2009 season both SU and ATS and looks to carry that momentum into the 2010 season. The Pick: Cleveland +3 and UNDER.
Carolina at N.Y. Giants (-7)
Over/Under Line 41
Carolina pummeled the Giants 41-9 in Week 16 last season as a nine point road underdog taking advantage of a disjointed New York defense. The Giants have spent the entire offseason retooling this once vaunted unit and would love nothing more that to show it off this week against the Panthers. The Pick: New York -7 and OVER.
Cincinnati at New England (-4 ½)
Over/Under Line 45
These two teams have not played each other in the regular season since 2007 when New England rolled to a 34-13 win as a 7 ½ point road favorite. Much has changed with both teams since then and they are much more evenly matched heading into this game. This could be a ‘whoever has the ball last wins’ kind of game. The Pick: New England -4 ½ and OVER.
4:15 p.m. (ET) San Francisco (-3) at Seattle
Over/Under Line 37.5
Seattle has won six out of its last 10 games against San Francisco SU and is 5-5 ATS against the 49ers in the same span. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the last eight games these two have played. The Seahawks are tough to beat at homes as they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Seattle. The Pick: Seattle +3 and UNDER.
Green Bay (-3) at Philadelphia
Over/Under Line 47.5
Philadelphia has owned this series over the past 10 games winning six SU and eight ATS, but that was long before Aaron Rodgers was the Packers quarterback and Kevin Kolb was the Eagles quarterback. Green Bay has looked sharp throughout the preseason and appears ready to carry this right into the regular season. The Pick: Green Bay -3 and OVER.
Arizona (-4) at St. Louis
Over/Under Line 39 ½
Arizona has won its last seven SU against St. Louis and five of seven ATS. The last four games they have played stayed ‘under’ the total. Both teams will have new starting quarterbacks heading into the season; veteran Derek Anderson for the Cardinals and rookie Sam Bradford for the Rams. The Pick: Arizona -4 and UNDER.
8:20 p.m. (ET) Dallas (-4) at Washington
Over/Under Line 40 ½
This NFC East matchup is one of the best rivalries in the NFL that usually goes down to the bitter end every time they play. Washington is just 3-4 SU in the last seven games but 5-2 ATS. Now that the Redskins have Donovan McNabb as their starting quarterback, expectations are running high for this team in 2010. The Pick: Washington +4 and UNDER.
Monday, Sep. 13
7:00 p.m. (ET)
Baltimore at N.Y. Jets (-2)
Over/Under Line 36
Something has to give in this one as Baltimore is 6-0 ATS and New York is 4-0 ATS in games played in September. Both teams have formidable defenses, but the edge on offense has to go to the Ravens as they can beat you with both the pass and the run. The Pick: Baltimore + 2 and UNDER.
10:15 p.m. (ET)
San Diego (-5 ½) at Kansas City
Over/Under Line 45
San Diego has won six out of the last seven against Kansas City SU and is 4-3 ATS. This will be a good test to see how the Chargers offense looks without their top receiver and All Pro left tackle. Kansas City actually has a good chance to keep this one close. The Pick: Kansas City +5 ½ and OVER
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David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.
