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Week 9: Spartans vs. Broncos Preview/Pick

NCAA Betting Odds: San Jose St vs Boise St

San Jose State Spartans (1-5 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) at Boise State Broncos (7-0 SU, 5-1 ATS)
Saturday, October 31 – 3 PM ET
BetUS NCAA Betting Odds: BOISE STATE -35, Total 56.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

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SJSU has lost eight of its last nine games SU
SJSU is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games
SJSU has lost four of its last five road games SU
SJSU has played its last five road games OVER the total
SJSU has played 17 of its last 25 road games UNDER the total
BSU has won 19 of its last 20 games SU
BSU has won 22 of its last 24 home games SU
BSU has won the last eight meetings SU
Three of the last four meetings have gone UNDER the total

One of the questions that would have to be asked in a game where there is such a talent gap is, what about the motivation level of the favorite? Well, Boise State Broncos is ranked seventh in the BCS poll, with five undefeated teams ahead of them. They actually fell from the #4 spot in that ranking, despite beating Hawaii 54-9. They are also fifth in the coaches’ poll and sixth in the AP ratings. Perhaps routing an outmanned opponent is of diminishing help, so I’m not sure whether blowing SJSU by an absurd score is something that is going to get Boise State closer to the BCS title game.

All that having been said, they may not be able to help winning by margin. Boise State has a good enough infantry to take advantage of a San Jose State Spartans defense that has sprung leaks against the run all year long (6.2 ypc allowed). The Broncos can throw Jeremy Avery (586 yards), Doug Martin (304) and DJ Harper (284) at teh opposition, and all are averaging at least five yards a carry. So you see, this is not the best matchup available for the Spartans, is it?

It also must be a little disquieting for San Jose State, which has dropped eight of their last nine games in the NCAA betting odds, that BSU’s quarterback, sophomore Kellen Moore has entered some of that fringe Heisman discussion, as he has ascended to the top of the NCAA’s passing efficiency ratings – a 68% passer, he has thrown for 21 TD’s with just two interceptions! Opponents have passed less against the Spartan secondary than any team in the country aside from Eastern Michigan, but that’s because there is so much success running against them.

There’s very little hope for the Spartan running attack (78 ypg), which hasn’t provided much balance for a below-average passing game. Boise ranks in the top 20 in both rushing and pass efficiency defense. In a small recommendation, let’s lay the points with Boise State, the 35-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA betting odds.

OUR PLAY: BOISE STATE -35 *

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