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Air Force at San Diego St. Preview/Pick

NCAAF Week 7 Betting – Air Force at San Diego State (SDSU)

The Air Force Falcons (3-2 SU, 3-1 ATS), smarting from a tough loss to Navy, will regroup and go at it against the San Diego State Aztecs (1-4 SU, 2-2 ATS) in NCAA college football action in the Mountain West that is scheduled to get underway at 9:30 PM ET at Qualcomm Stadium (natural turf) in San Diego.

Saturday, October 11

BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: AIR FORCE -10.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* AF has won nine of its last 13 games SU
* AF has covered five of its last six road games
* AF has won four of its last six road games SU
* AF has played five of its last six road games OVER the total
* SDSU has lost seven of its last eight games SU
* SDSU has lost five of its last seven home games SU

Also….

* SDSU has won and covered four of the last six meetings
* Five of the last seven meetings have gone OVER the total
* SDSU has covered four of the last five games as the home team

Air Force lost another one to Navy last week, but on an overall basis, you can’t disparage the effort too much. The Falcons out-gained the Middies by a 411-244 margin, and held the nation’s third-ranked rushing team (averaging 313 yards/game) to just 206 yards on the ground, its season low.

When former Heisman Trophy runner-up Chuck Long came to San Diego State as the head coach, his idea was to develop a dominant running game. In point of fact, it has been just the opposite. Only one team in Division I football has gained less yards per contest than SDSU, and that’s June Jones’ run ‘n shoot SMU Mustangs. With just 50 yards a game and 2.4 yards an attempt, Log needed to have an effective, talented quarterback to make up the difference. But it has been difficult, to say the least, to replace Kevin O’Connell, who is now with the New England Patriots. Freshman Ryan Lindley is only 52% accurate, and seven of his eight touchdown passes have been against weak sisters Idaho and Cal Poly. And he’s got a shoulder injury. If he can’t go, it’ll be Drew Westling, who was 6 for 17 against TCU in the season opener.

Special teams is an albatross for Long, as neither his kickoff return, punt return or punting units are ranked in the top 100. But the real problem is that the Aztecs have had little success in slowing down opposing rushing attacks. Teams have run for 245 yards a game against them, and only Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe have allowed more. The Falcons gained the ungodly total of 569 yards in the meeting with SDSU last year.

With Air Force still operating its option with efficiency (271 yards/game) behind QB Sean Smith, this just appears to be a bad matchup for San Diego State all the way around. So if the Falcons can pick themselves up off the canvas from last week’s loss, which virtually guarantees that they will not win the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy, we like Air Force to wear down SDSU and pull away. We’re laying the points with Air Force, a team that will have a lot of support down in San Diego, and the 10.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.

Our PLAY: AIR FORCE -10.5 ***

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