Week 6 NCAAF Action – Pittsburgh Panthers at South Florida Bulls
The Pittsburgh Panthers (3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS) haven’t covered the pointspread yet this season. On Thursday night they will try to do that, and then some, as they visit Tampa to play the South Florida Bulls (5-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) in Big East NCAA college football action that is set to get underway at 7:30 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium (natural turf).
Thursday, October 2
BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: SOUTH FLORIDA -13.5
Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* PITT has covered one of its last six games
* PITT has won four of its last five games SU
* PITT Has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
* PITT Has covered four of its last six road games
* PITT has lost six of its last eight road games SU
* PITT has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
* USF has won its last five games SU
* USF has won 11 of its last 13 home games SU
The Pitt Panthers, who were in the top 25 in the pre-season polls, were able to shake off an opening weekend loss to Bowling Green and rebound with wins over Buffalo, Iowa and Syracuse. These were all relatively narrow escapes, however, leaving us wondering just how good this Pitt edition is, and whether too much emphasis was put on that late-season win over West Virginia last year.
One of the things Pitt has to worry about is being able to turn LeSean McCoy loose. McCoy had his best game of the season on Saturday against Syracuse, with 149 yards in 28 carries. But there is obviously a very big difference between that ‘Cuse stop unit that is allowing over five yards an attempt and this USF squad, which has bottled up opposing runners to the tune of 2.1 yards a pop and 59 yards per contest (fourth in the nation, behind only TCU, Texas and Alabama). Last year, McCoy had only 55 yards in 18 carries against the Bulls, which was his season low.
It may be fashionable for some to disparage USF quarterback Matt Grothe, but the junior has improved his accuracy (66%, with an 8-2 ratio) and came up very big in the 37-34 win against Kansas with 32 completions, his career high. Grothe leads his team in rushing too, which highlights what some see as a potential difficulty in the USF arsenal, but there are indeed four other runners with over 100 yards and at least one TD, so the “committee” has been adequate.
Here’s an interesting stat, though – while the presence of All-American George Selvie is much celebrated, USF has gotten to the quarterback only five times this season, compared with 13 sacks by the Panthers. But those numbers are perhaps a bit deceiving, as we figure Pitt QB Bill Stull (57%, 2 TD’s), who is much more of a dinker and dunker (5.8 yards/attempt) is the guy more likely to make the mistake when his receivers’ short-distance routes are shut down.
We’ll count on South Florida’s defense (8th overall) and home prowess (winning 11 of last 13) to carry the day here. And so we lay the points with the Bulls, the 13.5- point favorite in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.
