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Oregon vs. USC Preview/Pick

NCAAF Week Six Odds – Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans

The USC Trojans (2-1 SU & ATS) will try to rebound from a devastating upset loss when they take the field against the Oregon Ducks (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) in a Pac-10 game in NCAA college football action that is set to kick off at 8 PM ET at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (natural turf).

Saturday, October 4
BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: USC -16, Total 56

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* ORE has covered four of its last six games
* ORE has won five of its last six games SU
* ORE has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* ORE has covered six of its last nine road games
* ORE has won six of its last eight games SU
* USC has covered six of its last eight games
* USC has won seven of its last eight games SU
* USC has played 11 of its last 14 games UNDER the total
* USC has covered four of its last five home games
* USC has won its last four home games SU
* USC has played seven of its last eight home games UNDER the total

Also….

* USC has covered four of the last five meetings
* USC has played four of the last five meetings UNDER the total

A little revenge is in the air for USC, which lost last year’s meeting by a 24-17 count, and was held to just 101 yards in the ground. Clearly, the Trojans also want to gain redemption for that loss to Oregon State last Thursday. The question is whether that serves as enough motivation to lay this many points against a team that is offensively potent and ranked in both polls, despite having suffered a defeat to Boise State two weeks ago.

Against Oregon State, USC was held scoreless in the first half and was outgained by a 343-313 margin, so it wasn’t exactly an accident that it lost. Now down to #9 in both polls, the Trojans are probably better than that; hey, they can beat BYU on a neutral field. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t a lot of areas of concern. For example, when C.J. Gable and Joe McKnight combine for just 29 yards rushing, that doesn’t bode well for a team that needs to open things up for young, developing Mark Sanchez (18 for 29 vs. OSU) to operate.

We don’t want to say that USC’s defensive front is inept; after all, you’ll see a lot of members of that defense playing on Sundays (and an occasional Monday). But freshman Jacquizz Rodgers burned that defense for 186 yards, and Oregon has been functioning at a high efficiency level, averaging 6.3 yards per carry out of the backfield. What’s most impressive is that they can split the load between LeGarrette Blount (481 yards) and Jeremiah Johnson (440 yards), who are fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Pac-10, so they are doing what USC would LIKE to with its loaded backfield.

We realize that Oregon has had its share of injury problems at the QB position. But Jeremiah Masoli has four TD’s and no INT’s in 48 throws, and let’s not forget that in coach Mike Bellotti, this is not a stiff Pete Carroll is matching wits with. We’re willing to grab the points with Oregon, the 16-points underdog in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.

Our PLAY: OREGON +16 ***

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