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NCAA Football

Iowa vs. Michigan St. Preview/Pick

On Saturday the Iowa Hawkeyes face off against the Michigan State Spartans, we preview and pick this week 6 matchup.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan State Spartans Odds

Two teams hoping to pull some surprises in the Big Ten will get together on Saturday as the Iowa Hawkeyes (3-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) face off against the Michigan State Spartans (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) in NCAA college football action that is slated to kick off at Noon ET at Spartan Stadium (natural turf) in East Lansing, MI.

BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: MICHIGAN STATE -8.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* IOWA has won six of its last nine games SU
* IOWA has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
* IOWA is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 road games
* IOWA has lost five of its last six road games SU
* IOWA has played five of its last six road games UNDER the total
* MSU has covered six of its last eight games
* MSU has won four of its last five games SU
* MSU has played ten of its last 15 games OVER the total
* MSU has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
* MSU has covered four of its last six home games
* MSU gas covered seven of its last 22 home games
* MSU has won five of its last six home games SU

Also….

* IOWA has covered five of the last six meetings
* IOWA has won four of the last six meetings SU
* Four of the last five meetings have gone OVER the total

I’m not so sure we’re high on this Iowa team that turned the ball over five times against Northwestern last week. That gives us the idea that this Hawkeye team is going to make life a little easier for Michigan State quarterback Brian Hoyer, who has struggled for the most part this season but may have started to redeem himself with a 261-yard performance against Indiana.

What ought to be a very big concern for Iowa, which has built bloated defensive stats against teams like Maine, FIU and Iowa State, is the presence of Spartan running back Jevon Ringer, who is making a quiet case for Heisman consideration, and making all the big plays for MSU (897 yards and 12 touchdowns). The Spartans have run for over 200 yards in each of the last four games,

Of course, the Hawkeyes haven’t been doing a bad job against the run (3.1 ypc allowed), and were able to keep another talented running back, LeSean McCoy of Pitt, within reason (78 yards on 18 carries). And the Iowa defense has done a pretty good job on quarterbacks, ranking 7th in the nation in passing efficiency defense. The fact is that Hoyer has completed only 47% of his passes, with three TD’s, so Ringer, who has been a workhorse, leading the country in rushing attempts by a wide margin, will be handling a disproportionate part of the load.

Richard Stanzi has stabilized the Iowa QB situation a bit (64%, 8.5 yds/attempt), and let’s not forget that Shonn Greene isn’t far behind Ringer on the nation’s honor roll for running backs (665 yards). If he is able to go (suffered head injury last week), we like Iowa, which has covered five of the last six meetings and gets 8.5 points in the BetUS NCAAF betting odds.

Our PLAY: IOWA +8.5 **

By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"