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Illinois vs. Michigan Preview/Pick

NCAAF Week Six Gambling – Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Wolverines

The Michigan Wolverines (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) pulled a huge win out of their hat last week. On Saturday they will try to build on that momentum as they play host to the Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) in Big 10 college football action that is set to kick off at 3:30 PM ET at Michigan Stadium (artificial turf) in Ann Arbor, MI.

Saturday, October 4

BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: MICHIGAN -2.5, Total 52

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* ILL has won 11 of its last 16 games SU
* ILL has covered eight of its last 12 road games
* ILL has lost 20 of its last 25 road games SU
* ILL has played five of its last seven road games OVER the total
* ILL has played 15 of its last 23 road games UNDER the total
* MICH has covered two of its last seven games
* MICH has won 11 of its last 15 games SU
* MICH has played four of its last five games OVER the total
* MICH has won seven of its last nine home games SU

Also….

* MICH has covered four of the last five meetings
* MICH has won the last six meetings SU

Michigan got a HUGE lift with its second-half comeback against Wisconsin last Saturday. The Wolverines scored 20 fourth-quarter points and turned a 19-0 shutout loss into a 27-25 upset win. But while that win is certainly a feather in Rich Rodriguez’s cap as he continues building the program his way, that doesn’t mean everything, or even most things, are rosy.

Aside from a 58-yard run by quarterback Steven Threat, there was not a whole lot of offense. Threat is usually not that nimble, and with his arm he was just 12 for 31 with a couple of interceptions. Really, there is still no airtight evidence that Threat is the ideal guy to be running Rodriguez’s spread offense into the future.

Of course, you can’t disparage what Michigan’s defensive front was able to do against Wisconsin’s star running back, P.J. Hill, who managed just 70 yards on 22 carries. That actually represented almost a yard more than their defensive average (2.3 ypc). Maybe that doesn’t make for good news for Illinois’ Daniel Dufrene, who’s averaged 6.7 yards a pop.

As long as Juice Williams can contribute a little in that area (283 yards), and can be reasonably accurate in throwing the ball (13 of 24, 183 yards vs. Penn State), the Illini have enough working components to move the chains. Meanwhile, we still see Michigan’s attack as a work in progress.

Sure,Illinois has a 2-2 record, but those losses were to Missouri and Penn State, both of whom are a little out of Michigan’s reach right now. Do you agree that Illinois is a Top 25 caliber team? Yeah, we do too. That’s why we’re taking the points with those Fighting Illini, the 2.5-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: ILLINOIS +2.5 ***

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