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Hawaii vs. Fresno St. Bulldogs Preview/Pick

NCAAF Week Six Picks – Hawaii Warriors at Fresno State Bulldogs

The Fresno State Bulldogs (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) still have hopes of cracking the top 10 at some point. On Saturday they will play host to the Warriors of Hawaii (1-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) in Western Athletic Conference action that is slated for a 10 PM ET kickoff at Bulldog Stadium (natural turf) in Fresno, CA.

Saturday, October 4

BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: FRESNO STATE -22, Total 54

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* HAW has won 20 of its last 25 games SU
* HAW has lost four of its last five games SU
* HAW has played eight of its last nine games UNDER the total
* HAW has lost its last five road games ATS
* HAW has won eight of its last 11 road games SU
* HAW has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total
* FRES has covered two of its last six games
* FRES has won six of its last seven games SU
* FRES has covered two of its last six home games
* FRES has won seven of its last nine home games SU
* FRES has played four of its last six home games UNDER the total

Also….

* HAW has covered six of the last nine meetings
* HAW has won five of the last seven meetings SU
* FRES has won four of the last six meetings SU as the home team

Fresno State did indeed struggle a bit against UCLA, winning by just five points. But along the line of fundamentals, it is important to note that the Bulldogs gained 207 yards and a little more than five yards a carry on the ground. That’s significant as they head into this home game against Hawaii, which was overwhelmed against the only balanced offense (Florida) that it has met thus far.

When QB Colt Brennan took off for the pros and coach June Jones departed for SMU, there went the efficiency in the Hawaii passing attack. Brennan had an outstanding 131-42 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his career, which led to Heisman and All-America consideration. But this year’s club has attained only four TD’s through the air in four games, with 11 interceptions. So it’s fair to say they’ve got a lot of catching up to do.

Hawaii doesn’t have a running game (95 yards/game – 107th in country), which isn’t a big surprise. The Warriors have allowed almost 43 points a game to Division I opposition, which is not a shocker either. They have been dreadful in terms of field position, ranking among the worst teams in the country on punting, punt returns and kickoff returns. And their minus-15 turnover ratio is BY FAR the worst in all of major college football.

Those are too many shortcomings when you have problems on the mainland (0-5 ATS last five as visitor) and are facing a team with a chip on its shoulder, because when you add in the fact that Fresno State has lost two straight to Hawaii, and had to endure a 68-point outburst at Aloha Stadium in 2006, and the Bulldogs can pretty much name the score here. Let’s lay the points with Fresno, the 22-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.

Our PLAY: FRESNO STATE -22 ***

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