College Football Underdog Alert – Virginia vs. North Carolina
Virginia Cavaliers (0-3 SU, 1-1 ATS) at North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Saturday, October 3 – Noon ET
BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: NORTH CAROLINA -13, Total 42
Here are some of the college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
VA has lost its last seven games SU
VA has lost five of its last six road games SU NC has won four of its last six games SU
NC has won six of its last eight home games SU
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Also…
VA has won six of the last seven meetings SU
VA has covered ten of the last eleven meetings
Five of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
VA has covered four of the last five meetings as the road team
Thus far, Virginia has lost to an FCS team (William & Mary), a Mountain West team (TCU) and a Conference USA Team (Southern Miss) en route to a winless record. With a losing streak of seven straight, the seat is getting very hot for coach Al Groh, who many of you recall used to coach the New York Jets.
However, if you’re a Virginia backer you should take heart in the fact that the Cavaliers finally seemed to get their brand-new spread offense moving against Southern Miss last week, traveling 312 yards through the air, and gave the Golden Eagles life-and-death on their own field. Quarterback Jameel Sewell, doesn’t have great stats (50.6% completions, 5 INT’s), but he has good size, running ability and a good arm, not to mention experience as he continues to come back from an idle 2008, and this may not have been a fluke but the general progression of a team that is just coming together a lot more on offense.
Speaking of Sewell, Groh says, “You have to remember that this is a player who once he did get into that type of rhythm two years ago, won nine games for us.”
The Tar Heels certainly have the kind of speed on defense that could give Virginia’s spread a very hard time, after being run over by Georgia Tech last week, but if you threw out the opener, a walkover against The Citadel, you’d see that North Carolina has sputtered a bit on offense. They had only 154 total yards against the Yellow Jackets and 268 two weeks before that against U-Conn, and they have averaged just 2.15 yards a carry against Division I competition. Quarterback T.J. Yates (6 TD’s, 5 INT’s) has also struggled as he looks for reliable targets. What this adds up to is that North Carolina does not necessarily leave a lot of room for error because of its offense.
We readily concede that the things that Georgia Tech was able to dominate the Tar Heels with last week – namely a machine-like running attack – are way out of Virginia’s reach. But this game won’t be, especially if Sewell continues to build on the confidence he gained in his last outing. That may be all he’ll need, and all Groh needs, to stay out of the doghouse for a little while. The technical trends, which show Virginia covering ten of the last 11 meetings, are not insignificant either.
We’re going to grab the points with Virginia, the 13-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds.
OUR PLAY: VIRGINIA +13 ***
One reply on “Cavaliers vs. Tar Heels Preview/Pick”
Picking Virginia +13 is a bold pick considering how bad they have looked so far this season.
The thing about the ACC is that there just aren’t that many good teams this year…….so any given Saturday this still could be a good play.