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Mississippi vs. Florida Preview/Pick

NCAA Football Week 5 – Mississippi Rebels at Florida Gators

The Florida Gators (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS), who have passed their last two tests resoundingly, will look to stay undefeated on Saturday as they take on the Ole Miss Rebels (2-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) in an SEC matchup in NCAA college football that is set to get underway at 12:30 PM ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (natural turf) in Gainesville, FL.

Saturday, September 27

BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: FLORIDA -22.5, Total 50

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* MISS has lost 11 of its last 15 games SU
* MISS has lost its last five road games SU
* MISS has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total
* FLA has covered six of its last eight games
* FLA has won seven of its last eight games SU
* FLA has covered four of its last six home games
* FLA has won 22 of its last 25 home games SU

Also….

* MISS has covered the last four meetings
* The last three meetings have gone UNDER the total

Is the honeymoon over for Houston Nutt in Oxford? No, not really. Hey look – the Rebels, who stomped all over Memphis in the opener, dropped a 30-28 thriller to Wake Forest, then, after an “exhibition” win over Samford, gave up six unanswered fourth-quarter points to lose to Vanderbilt, which has achieved a national ranking for itself as a result. The goat last week was Jevan Sneed, the Texas transfer who completed just 12 of 25 passes with four interceptions in the loss.

There are some other working parts, including a defensive line that has, so far, allowed just 3.1 yards per rushing attempt, but Snead is just 54% accurate and has thrown seven picks, which is a concern when going head-to-head against this Florida defense, which has now played a BCS team from last year (Hawaii), an SEC finalist from ’07 (Tennessee) and in-state rival Miami, and allowed just 19 points and two touchdowns. Ironically, the category the Gators rank lowest in is passing offense, which is piloted by Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow. But even though he is not approaching his numbers from last season, when he accounted for 55 combined TD’s rushing and passing, Tebow has been mistake-free in all three games thus far, with Louis Murphy (eight catches for 146 yards) picking up the slack for the slow, injury-plagued start of Percy Harvin.

Last year Ole Miss threw a scare into Florida, which came away with a 30-24 win at Oxford behind 246 rushing yards. Can’t say Florida is going to reach that total this time around, but there was some concern about the defense, which is now passing tests with flying colors. Florida has covered seven of its last ten games at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, and Ole Miss has lost five straight road games. We’re not going to gravitate toward one side or the other, however’ instead, recognizing that the Gators may not be generating so much offense to put up the same kind of numbers it showed last year, we’ll look for the stop unit to take over, which sends us to UNDER 50 in the BetUS NCAAF football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 50 ***

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