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NCAA Football

Trojans vs. Bruins Preview/Pick

The USC Trojans can earn a trip to the Rose Bowl on Saturday if they can beat their old nemesis the UCLA Bruins in Pac-10 action at 4:30 PM ET in Pasadena, CA. WE preview and pick this week 15 matchup…

College Football Picks – USC Trojans at UCLA Bruins

The USC Trojans (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) can earn a trip to the Rose Bowl on Saturday if they can score a victory over the UCLA Bruins (4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS) in NCAA college football sports betting action in the Pac-10 Conference that is scheduled to begin at 4:30 PM ET at the Rose Bowl (natural turf) in Pasadena, CA.

BetUS NCAAF Betting Odds: USC -33, Total 47.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* USC has covered 11 of its last 16 games
* USC has played 15 of its last 22 games UNDER the total
* USC has won six of its last seven road games SU
* UCLA has covered 10 of its last 15 games
* UCLA has lost 12 of its last 17 games SU
* UCLA has played six of its last seven games UNDER the total
* UCLA has covered seven of its last nine home games
* UCLA has won 18 of its last 25 home games SU
* UCLA has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

Also…

* USC has covered six of the last nine meetings
* USC has won eight of the last nine meetings SU
* UCLA has covered four of the last six meetings as the home team

USC has the kind of defense that has rarely been seen in college football. The Trojans are allowing just 3.4 yards a play, and rank #1 in the nation in pass defense, total defense and scoring defense, third in tackles for loss and sixth in rushing defense. And they have held NINE different opponents to ten points or less.

This doesn’t appear to leave much room for UCLA, which brought aboard Norm Chow as offensive coordinator and proceeded to have an attack that offended many followers. The rushing game hasn’t worked; the Bruins have averaged just 2.6 yards per carry and 86 yards a game. The protection schemes have not been good enough to keep their passers from being sacked 35 times. The quarterback, Kevin Craft, has been dreadful, with 12 interceptions and no touchdown passes in his last four games. UCLA has scored 18.6 points a game, which ranks 107th in Division I football.

UCLA has taken it on the chin a few times, that’s for sure. The most humiliating of these outing has been against BYU, who walked away with a 59-0 victory behind seven touchdown passes by Max Hall (by comparison, Craft has 7 TDs ALL YEAR).

But interestingly, they have gotten things together to be competitive against the Trojans the last couple of seasons. Of course, two years ago they actually pulled off a shocking 13-9 win as a 12.5-point underdog, and last year stayed within the number, losing just 24-7, though they were outgained by a 437-168 margin.

It is worth noting how big this number is, and that no matter how much USC ran up the score it wouldn’t be enough to make a difference in determining a spot in the BCS title game, since it would appear the SEC winner will likely play against either Oklahoma or Texas. So much for that kind of “incentive.” Technical numbers show us that as a visitor within the conference, USC has covered just five of its last 16, indicating it is usually overvalued. And UCLA has been surprisingly good when getting points, as the Bruins have covered 14 of their last 19 as a dog. And let’s not forget that the Bruins are second in the country in pass defense, allowing opponents to complete just 53% of their passes, for less than 160 yards a game.

We’re going to grab the points with 33-point underdog UCLA in the BetUS Sportsbook NCAA college football betting odds, but only as a small recommendation.

Our PLAY: UCLA +33 *

By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"