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Ducks vs. Beavers Preview/Pick

NCAAF Betting Trends – Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers

There is the possibility of a Rose Bowl berth on the line for the Oregon State Beavers (8-3 SU & ATS) as they take to the field on Saturday, hosting the “Civil War” against the Oregon Ducks (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) in NCAA college football sports betting action that is set to kick off at 7 PM ET at Reser Stadium (artificial turf) in Corvallis, OR.

Saturday, November 29
BetUS NCAA Football Sports Betting Odds: OREGON STATE -3, Total 62

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* ORE has covered two of its last six games
* ORE has won four of its last five games SU
* ORE has won four of its last six road games SU
* OSU has covered eight of its last nine games
* OSU has won its last six games SU
* OSU has covered eight of its last nine home games
* OSU has won its last eight home games SU


* OSU has won four of the last six meetings SU
* The last six meetings have gone OVER the total
* OSU has covered four of the last five meetings as the home team

The Beavers have lost three times – the season opener against Stanford was a true stumble, but there were also defeats to Utah and Penn State, both of whom will be in the BCS. In fact, Penn State may be their opponent in the Rose Bowl if they win on Saturday. Along the way there have been wins over the likes of California, Arizona and of course, USC, which in effect spoiled the Trojans’ national title hopes and created the scenario by which OSU can get to Pasadena.

Will they have enough to cross the finish line?

The job gets a lot harder without freshman running back Jacquizz Rodgers, who is likely out of this game with a shoulder injury. With 12 touchdowns and 1253 rushing yards, Rodgers leads the Pac-10 Conference. Ryan McCants, a redshirt freshman, and Jeremy Francis will find playing time, along with Jacquizz’ brother James, who had 102 yards against Arizona last week. Thankfully, OSU will at least have a choice at quarterback, where Lyle Moevao (62%, 14 TD’s, 9 INT’s), another player who has been working through a shoulder injury, should be ready to support, or start in place of, Sean Canfield (67%).

But as usual, the story with Oregon State will have to be defense. It’s a stop unit that allowed just 3.4 yards a rush, but will be tested by a Duck attack that can always have a fresh running back on the field and contributing, between Jeremiah Jonson (863 yards) and LeGarrette Blount (816 yards). What the Beavers will have to look for is to capitalize on the limits of Jeremiah Masoli (56%, 9 TD’s) at the QB position.

Oregon is trying to motivate itself with the idea that a win here, and a USC loss next week against UCLA, could result in a three-way tie for the conference title. Whether that works or not, we don’t know. But there is quite a bit of concern about a team (OSU) that is missing the back that has accounted for 66% of its rushing yardage. Let’s also not forget that Oregon is sixth nationally, averaging 268 yards a game and six yards a carry out of its balance rushing attack, and they’re not half bad at defending the run either (3 ypc).

And while Oregon’s offensive whiz, Mike Bellotti, has gotten used to dealing with injuries, especially to his QB corps, it might be more problematic for OSU mentor Mike Riley to work through Rodgers’ absence, which is going to put a lot more pressure on those passers of his.

Let’s take the points with Oregon, the three-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA college football sports betting odds, with the possibility of them spoiling OSU’s Rose Bowl party, and making the Rose Bowl people happy (Penn State already beat the Beavers 45-17 this season).

Our PLAY: OREGON +3 **


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