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Week 13: Tigers vs Jayhawks Preview/Pick

Week 13 – Missouri Tigers @ Kansas Jayhawks

Date: Saturday November 28 3:30 PM EST
Site: Lawrence, Kansas
BetUS LINE: Missouri -3

Preview:

Kansas has been one of the most disappointing teams this season. I, like a lot of people had them penciled in for at least an eight-win year.

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This year started off well – the Jayhawks were sitting 5-0 – but after six consecutive losses and accusations of abuse from coach Mark Mangino, the team is reeling and now needs a win just to become bowl eligible.

On the other hand, Missouri has been one of the more pleasant surprises this year after losing a lot to the pros this offseason. They have had some bad losses and are still looking for a big win, and there is nothing bigger to a team than rivalry wins.

Both defenses are very average and will give up a lot through the air. Kansas and Missouri are both ranked in the top 20 in passing and in the 90’s in rushing. Basically, there will be a couple token runs in the first quarter and then things will go aerial. Both teams also rank around 55th in pass efficiency defense, so this game will come down to which QB plays better.

After being touted as a possible Heisman contender in the preseason, Todd Reesing has struggled compared to 2008. After having a great 3:1 TD-INT ratio last year, he has fallen to 2:1 this year. This cannot be blamed on the receiving corps because veterans Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe will both be 1,000-yard receivers this season.

Mizzou pivot Blaine Gabbert is one of the most promising young QB’s in the nation. He has made the position a strength for the Tigers after the departure of Chase Daniel. His numbers are fantastic for a young QB (2,999 yards, 22 TD, 7 INT), and he is only getting better. He also has one of the best targets in the nation in the country to throw to in Danario Alexander; he has over 100 yards receiving in all but three games this season and has amassed almost 1,500 yards and 12 TD’s.

The edge in the QB battle seems to go to Gabbert, but Reesing is the veteran and the Jayhawks need this game to get bowl eligible. Gabbert may be a sophomore but he’s mature beyond his years and should lead the Tigers to a one-touchdown win.

2009 Team Stats

Total Offense: Missouri: 45th
Kansas: 38th

Total Defense: Missouri: 43rd
Kansas: 65th

Spread/Trends

Trends:

Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing South Carolina
Clemson is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against South Carolina
Clemson is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing South Carolina
South Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Carolina’s last 5 games
South Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
South Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Clemson

2009: Clemson: 8-3 ATS
South Carolina: 6-5 ATS

O/U: 2009: Missouri: 4-7
Kansas: 6-4

Pick: Clemson -3

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Adam Slozar is a CFB Junkie and regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. He also hails from the Great White North but don’t hold that against him. Adam wants to hear from you so please comment below.

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