NCAA Betting Odds – Miami Hurricanes (-5.5) vs. South Florida Bulls
Saturday, November 28 – 3:30 ET
NCAA Football Odds: MIAMI -5.5, Total 52
Miami and South Florida have entered into an agreement to play for the next five years, and those games will be held during Thanksgiving week, I guess emulating what Florida and Florida State do during the same time.
Here are some of the college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
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MIA has covered one of its last five games
MIA has won six of its last eight games SU
MIA has played four of its last five games OVER the total
USF has covered one of its last five games
USF has won eight of its last 11 games SU
USF has played five of its last six games OVER the total
USF has won six of its last seven home games SU
It’s not the first time they’ve met; in fact, Miami beat USF rather easily (27-7) four years ago (a non-cover), but that was before the rise of the South Florida program to new heights. Next season USF gets to face the Florida Gators, and these are significant steps ahead for the program.
This is a big game for South Florida, not just because it is against an in-state rival that it battles for recruits, but also because a win keeps the Bulls’ hopes for a ten-win season, the first in its history, alive. Such a thing might not have been thought possible when Matt Grothe went down with his season-ending injury, but BJ Daniels has picked up the ball a little earlier than anticipated.
Daniels, a Tallahassee native who was not recruited by Florida State, got his revenge in his very first start when he led the Bulls to a 17-7 win against FSU. Now, he’s looking to complete a Sunshine State sweep, while coming off the biggest game of his young career; one where he passed for 304 yards and ran for 141 more in a 34-22 come-from-behind win over Louisville.
South Florida has had something of a Jekyll-and-Hyde existence this year. The Bulls have played very well against Florida State and West Virginia, while at other times getting beat by Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Rutgers by a combined 75 points. This has led ultimately to a 3-5 ATS record.
Which team will show up on Saturday? Well, we think the one that will rush the passer (behind George Selvie) enough to force Jacory Harris into a mistake or two. We love Harris because he’s such a swashbuckler. But he has turned into a collegiate version of Brett Favre, throwing 21 touchdown passes but also 17 interceptions. He is by no means limited in running Mark Whipple’s offense, but he sometimes pushes those limits a little too far. Between that, Miami’s numerous injury problems, Daniels’ versatility and a raucous crowd in Tampa, we think the Bulls may just rise to the moment.
It’s for that reason that we’re going to go with South Florida, the 5.5-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA betting odds.
OUR PLAY: SOUTH FLORIDA +5.5 ***
