Week 13 – Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Date: Saturday November 28, 8:00 PM EST
Site: Atlanta, Georgia
BetUS LINE: Georgia Tech -7
Preview:
If it weren’t for Charlie Weis and Mark Mangino’s troubles, Bulldogs coach Mark Richt may be on the hottest seat in college football. After beginning the season ranked 13th in the AP poll. The Bulldogs are 6-5 and staring at one of the worst seasons in recent memory in Athens.
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On the other hand is Paul Johnson, the Yellow Jackets coach who in only his second year is 19-5 and looking at a BCS bowl.
People were wondering if Paul Johnson’s triple-option attack could work on the big stage. In his first year, Georgia Tech ranked fifth in the nation and this year they rank second with 314 YPG. Johnson’s offense relies on two players, running back Jonathan Dwyer and quarterback Josh Nesbitt. After starting the season slowly, Dwyer has rushed for over 100 yards in six of his last eight games. Anyone who has seen the option knows it all goes through the quarterback and his ability to make good decisions. Nesbitt may not be able to beat you throwing the ball (he has gone over 200 yards passing just once this season), but he does make good decisions directing the offense. Since Georgia will stack the box with their 34th ranked rush defense and try to make Nesbitt beat them through the air, expect a few more passes from him.
Things keep getting worse for the Bulldogs offensively, they already have not been very explosive this year and things get worse if star wideout AJ Green can’t go this weekend. He has been the lone bright spot for the offense, and if he is out three freshmen will have to take his place. Turnovers have plagued Georgia, ranking second to last in the country in turnover margin. Joe Cox has been part of this problem. The senior QB’s numbers have been decent until you look at the interceptions (2350 yards, 21TD’s, 14 INT’s). Going against a team that doesn’t turn the ball over very much, Cox will have to play a mistake-free game if the Bulldogs have any chance of winning.
This game comes down to the Bulldog offense scoring when they have the opportunity, because Georgia Tech likes to hog the ball, which limits the opponents scoring chances. Look for a close game like last year, and if Georgia can stop the big play they have a good chance. Unfortunately no one has been able to stop the Jackets running game, so a seven point win for GT seems about right for a rivalry game.
2009 Team Stats
Total Offense: Georgia- 73rd
Georgia Tech- 12th
Total Defense: Georgia- 32nd
Georgia Tech- 46th
Spread/Trends
Trends:
Georgia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Georgia Tech
Georgia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Georgia Tech
Georgia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Georgia Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia’s last 5 games when playing Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Georgia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Georgia Tech is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia Tech’s last 5 games when playing Georgia
2009: Georgia: 3-8 ATS
Georgia Tech: 7-3 ATS
O/U: Georgia: 5-5-1
Georgia Tech: 4-5-1
– Georgia is 5-15 in their last 20 games ATS
– Georgia Tech is 7-1 in their last 8 games ATS
Pick: Tech -7
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Adam Slozar is a CFB Junkie and regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. He also hails from the Great White North but don’t hold that against him. Adam wants to hear from you so please comment below.
