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NCAA Football

Week 11: Fighting Irish vs. Panthers Preview/Pick

Oddsmakers currently have the Panthers listed as 6½-point favorites versus the Fighting Irish, while the game’s total is sitting at 58½, here is a preview for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Pittsburgh Panthers plus a pick and lines betting angle…

Week 11 – Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Pittsburgh Panthers

Date: Saturday November 14, 8:00 PM EST
Site: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
BetUS LINE: -6.5

Preview:

A lot of people thought one of the teams this weekend would have a record of 8-1 and ranked ninth in the country. Just no one thought that team would be Pitt. The Panthers have had a stellar season thus far and are on their way to a possible Big East championship. The Irish, on the other hand, are looking at the Gator Bowl if they can get two more wins.

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After being gashed by Navy in the run game for 348 yards at 6.1 yards per, things don’t get easier for the Irish this weekend going up against Dion Lewis. He has been amazing this year rushing for 1,100 yards and 12 TDs as a true freshman. The Irish will try to slow Lewis by stacking the box and that will open up the pass game for QB Bill Stull. Stull has been one of the most surprising pivots this year. One of the big question marks going into the season was: Who was going to play quarterback for the Panthers? Stull has answered the bell, passing for almost 1,900 yards, 17 TDs and just four picks. He has shown that you can’t just try and stop the run game like teams used to do against the Pitt.

The Irish may be playing for Charlie Weis’ job on Saturday. After disappointing losses to Michigan and Navy, the hot seat has never been hotter for the high-profile coach. The Irish get a big boost to the run game this week with the return of running back Armando Allen. The leading rusher for the Irish (514 yards) has missed the last couple games with a sprained ankle. Notre Dame had a really tough time in the red zone last week against Navy, and things don’t get any easier this week with the loss of TE Kyle Rudolph. Inside the 20, Notre Dame is going to have to try and run the ball more often to get Jimmy Clausen open looks.

This game will come down to which Irish rush defense shows up. The team that gave Nevada problems, or the team that got beat down by an undersized Navy team. Seeing that Dion Lewis is a beast and hasn’t been slowed down by better defenses, Notre Dame doesn’t look to have a shot in this game. Although it won’t be a blowout, Pitt wins by about 10.

2009 Team Stats – Total Offence: ND: 6th
PITT: 37th

Total Defense: ND: 79th
PITT: 21st

Trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Notre Dame’s last 15 games on the road
Notre Dame is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Notre Dame’s last 6 games
Notre Dame is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Notre Dame is 1-8 ATS in their last 8 games
Pitt is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games

Spread/Trends

2009: ND: 2-7 ATS
PITT: 6-2 ATS

O/U: ND: 4-5
PITT: 3-5

Our Pick: Pitt -9

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Adam Slozar is a CFB Junkie and regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. He also hails from the Great White North but don’t hold that against him. Adam wants to hear from you so please comment below.

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Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"