Week 10 Oregon Ducks vs. Stanford Cardinal
Date: Saturday, November 7, 2009 3:30PM EST
Site: –Stanford, California–
Line: BetUS LINE: Oregon –6.5
PREVIEW
What a difference seven games makes. Oregon’s season seemed like a write-off after a 19-8 loss on the blue turf at Boise State. The game and offense was so bad people started to question newly-minted Chip Kelly’s coaching ability.
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And everyone remembers the punch that had LaGarrette Blount suspended for possibly the rest of the year (his reinstatement will be decided on by Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott). Since that loss, Oregon has arguably been the best team in the country. The Week 1 version of the Ducks has now been transformed into a team that has routed the two other top teams in the conference by a combined score of 89-23.
Stanford’s record is a bit deceiving. Although they are 5-3 (4-2 in conference play), the Cardinal’s best win is against a very average Arizona State team. They do seem to be a tough match-up, however, as their three loses have been by a combined 22 points.
The Cardinal offense has basically two stars in QB Andrew Luck and HB Toby Gerhart. For a redshirt freshman Luck seems to be the real deal (1800 pass yards, 9 TD, 3 INT). He manages the game well, and makes big plays when he has to. Gerhart is just a beast at the running back position at 6”0, 235 lbs. He wears defenses down throughout the game and nearly always racks up triple-digits in yardage.
For the read-option to work you need, as what Chip Kelly calls, “a QB who can run”, and that’s exactly what Oregon has in Jeremiah Masoli. This guy reminds people of Dennis Dixon. He may not be the athlete that Dixon was, but he does run the offense extremely well. The biggest question when Blount was suspended was who was going to be the star at running back. The answer emerged in LaMichael James, who has rushed for 900 yards and 7 scores this season and is a big part of the reason the Ducks have one of the best rush offenses in the nation.
Both these defenses don’t have many stars, but make up for that with solid tackling and playing their assignments properly.
This game will come down to whether or not Stanford can keep scoring when the Ducks do. Although the game will be close, I don’t think the Cardinal can keep this game within 7 points.
2009 Team Stats – Total Offence: Oregon: 45th // Stanford: 20th
Total Defense: Oregon: 20th // Stanford: 67th
Spread/Trends
2009:
Oregon ATS: 7-1
Stanford ATS: 5-3
O/U: Oregon: 5-3
Stanford: 3-5
-Oregon is 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite
-Stanford is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Oregon vs. Stanford Free Pick: Oregon –10.5
