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Week 10: Midshipmen vs. Fighting Irish Preview/Pick

Week 10 Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Date: Saturday, November 7, 2:30 PM EST
Site: South Bend, Indiana
BetUS LINE: Notre Dame -11

Preview

Notre Dame looks to keep its slim BCS bowl hopes alive when Navy visits on Saturday. Notre Dame is coming off an impressive 40-14 victory against pincushion Washington State, while Navy had a very disappointing loss against Temple 27-24.

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Things don’t seem too bright for the Middies, considering they have lost 44 out of the last 45 meetings against ND.

Navy relies on QB Ricky Dobbs, who is their second leading rusher, to run their triple option attack. He is returning after missing most of the last two games with a cracked bone in his knee. For an offense that requires a QB to take hits and rush a lot, Dobbs’ injury may limit him. The option offense is difficult to prepare for; usually teams that don’t see this offense very often have serious problems defending it (see Navy-OSU game earlier this year). Notre Dame on the other hand sees it every year so they know what to expect.

Notre Dame has proved it can run the ball in the past few games, and expect the Irish to try and take advantage of Navy’s undersized O-line, but also expect a few more throws this week considering they get Michael Floyd back in the lineup. Floyd has missed the last 5.5 games with a broken collarbone, but has been cleared to play and Weis said he will start.

The interesting thing is that with the exception of the USC game, the Irish have done well without Floyd. Golden Tate has stepped in beautifully and is now considered one of the best wideouts in the country. Heisman hopeful Jimmy Clausen is still nursing a turf toe injury, but it has not seemed to bother him too much as he is second in the nation in pass efficiency. He may have re-aggravated his injury during the WSU game, so expect Weis to pull him quicker than last week if they get a big lead.

Every Notre Dame-Navy game seems to be the same. Navy keeps it close early and tries to control the clock, but Notre Dame’s size and skill takes control in the second half.

Although Navy always gives Notre Dame their best game, the Irish offense is too explosive this year and will give Navy fits. Look for Notre Dame in a blowout.

2009 Team Stats – Total Offence: Total Offense: ND – 5th // Navy – 79th
Total Defense: ND – 83rd // Navy – 27th

Spread/Trends

2009: ND: 2-6 ATS
Navy: 5-4 ATS

O/U: ND: 4-4
Navy: 5-4

-Notre Dame is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games
-Notre Dame is 0-6 in their last 6 games as a favorite

Navy @ Notre Dame Free Pick: Notre Dame -14

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Adam Slozar is a CFB Junkie and regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. He also hails from the Great White North but don’t hold that against him. Adam wants to hear from you so please comment below.

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