College Football Game of the Night – Miami at Florida State
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Miami Hurricanes (7-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) at Florida State Seminoles (9-4 SU, 6-5 ATS)
Monday, September 7 – 8PM ET
College Football Odds: FLORIDA STATE -6.5, Total 48
Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
MIA ha splayed four of its last six games UNDER the total
MIA has covered six of its last eight road games
MIA has lost 11 of its last 15 road games SU
MIA has played four of its last six road games SU
FSU has won seven of its last ten games SU
FSU has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
FSU has covered four of its last six home games
FSU has won eleven of its last 15 home games SU
FSU has played five of its last six home games OVER the total
Also…
MIA has won seven of the last ten meetings SU
Six of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total
MIA has covered five of the last six meetings as the road team
MIA has won four of the last five meetings SU as the road team
Florida State had a tumultuous off-season, as can sometimes happen when players who are not well-qualified, academically or socially, are permitted to enter a major football program. The result – some arrests, sanctions coming down as a result of an academic scandal, and the forfeiture of fourteen wins from the record of Bobby Bowden, which puts him considerably behind Joe Paterno’s mark with Penn State (all of which is nonsense anyway, but that’s another story). In other words, it’s kind of “business as usual” in Tallahassee. 
FSU quarterback Christian Ponder, who threw 14 TD passes but had 13 interceptions last year, had better produce, because even though FSU had more rushing yards last year than it had achieved since 2002, the Seminoles will still have a problem controlling games on the ground. Surely they don’t want Ponder himself (432 yards) shouldering a lot of that load. Antone Smith’s 15 touchdown runs will be missed. So will eight defensive starters, although they can reload in Tallahassee a little better than most other teams.
Miami lost its swagger right before Randy Shannon took the head coaching job, and hasn’t really gotten it back. They’ve made some moves on the coaching staff, bringing in noted offensive coordinator Mark Whipple, who was an assistant with the Eagles and Steelers, as well as a Division 1-AA national champion when coaching at U-Mass. This offense will be more wide-open and will stretch the field. They are more established at QB now that Jacory Harris (61%, 12 TD’s) is in place from the beginning. Playmakers are present, like Graig Cooper (841 yards) at running back and the top six receivers.
Miami ‘s defense is young but has lots of talent, and there is always going to be speed there. This unit held Florida to 17 first downs and two TD’s in the second game of 2008, but then gave up 908 rushing yards in the last three games of the campaign. With three of four D-linemen back, this shouldn’t happen again.
Look – I don’t have nearly as much faith in FSU’s “coach-in-waiting” Jimbo Fisher as most people do. I also think Jacory Harris has more upside than Ponder. This Miami team is in no way overwhelmed when it comes to talent, and recent history has shown that you can throw out reputations and records, as five of the last six meetings have been won by the underdog – straight-up. We’re taking Miami plus the 6.5 points in the BetUS NCAA college football sports betting odds.
JAY’S PLAY: MIAMI +6.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
One reply on “Hurricanes vs. Seminoles Preview/Pick”
I love the “Canes + 6.5. I’m not sure what to expect from Florida State as I just do not think they are as good as most people are giving them credit for.