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NCAA Football

Kansas St. Wildcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Week 7 Free Pick

Venue/ Stadium: Jones AT&T Stadium, LUBBOCK, TX

Kansas State (5-0) is off to their best start in 11 years and look to snap their 5-game losing streak to a Texas Tech (4-1) team that, shocker, has one of the best passing offenses ranked 6th in the nation in passing yards per game.

Time/Date: 7 PM EST Saturday, October 15, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: KSU +150 / Texas Tech -170
Spread (ATS): Texas Tech -3.5
Over/Under: 59.5

No. 6 Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview

This is an interesting game, as the Wildcats are all about the run and the Red Raiders are, mostly, about the pass. NCAAF lines have Texas Tech as a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 59.5.

In their last games Texas Tech lost a 45-40 barnburner to Texas A&M and KSU beat Missouri 24-17.

The Kansas defense, which ranks 15th in the nation, will have to deal with a Texas Tech offense that ranks 8th in the nation in scoring. Their main goal in this game is trying to contain Tech QB Seth Doege, who has 17 TD on the season and in the loss to Texas A&M passed for 391 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT. The Kansas State pass defense ranks 39th in the nation and their main concern is keeping Tech WR Darrin Moore (21 rec 339 yards 4 TD averaging 16.1 yards per catch) from making the big play.

Tech has, or should I say had, a good rushing attack ranked 46th in the nation, but leading rusher Eric Stephens is out for the season with a knee injury suffered in the Mizzou game. Freshman RB DeAndre Washington (107 yards 2 TD) will have to take up the slack and pick up some yards against KSU and their 16th ranked run defense so the Wildcats do not stack the secondary to defend the pass.

Kansas State is about the run since their passing offense only ranks 115th in the nation. The Wildcats feature the duo of RB John Hubert and duel threat, well not so much passing the ball, of QB Collin Klein, who has combined for over 950 rushing yards on the season. That does not bode well for a Tech rushing defense that ranks 115th in the nation and gave up 205 rushing yards in the loss to Texas A&M last week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

John Hubert has been en fuego as of late rushing for 349 yards in his last 3 games. If KSU dominates on the ground they will be tough to beat keeping Tech and their offense off the field.

Texas Tech head coach Tommy Tuberville stated it best saying, “We ain’t stopped (the run) all year. We’ve got to play better on defense. This will be a game where we’ve got to get our offense back on the field.”

Betting Trends

Both of these Big 12 teams are 4-1 ATS and Kansas State has an O/U record of 2-3 and Texas Tech has an O/U record of 4-1.

Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games, and has an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Texas Tech is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning road record, and has an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 games.
Texas Tech has covered the spread in their last 6 games facing Kansas State.

Jason’s Pick: I think the Red Raiders would have a chance if they could run the ball, but with Stephens out that will be tough in this game. On the other side of the coin KSU will run the ball well and play decent pass defense, as they will win in a minor road upset and snap their losing streak to the Red Raiders. Take the Under as well, as the Red Raiders will not light up the scoreboard like they are used to doing.

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By Jason Green

Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.