Kansas State Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals
On a special Wednesday night edition of NCAA college football televised on ESPN, the Kansas State Wildcats (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) will travel to the state of Kentucky to take on the Louisville Cardinals (1-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) in an inter-conference matchup that is set to kick off at 8 PM ET at Papa Johns’ Stadium (artificial turf) in Louisville.
BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: KANSAS STATE -4, Total 56.5
Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* KSU has lost four of its last six games SU
* KSU has covered six of its last 21 road games
* KSU has lost seven of its last eight road games SU
* KSU has played 16 of its last 21 road games OVER the total
* LOU has won 17 of its last 25 games SU
* LOU has won 22 of its last 25 home games SU
This game matches up a couple of quarterbacks who have some pro possibilities. NFL scouts really like Louisville QB Hunter Cantwell’s size (6’4″, 230 lbs.) and arm strength. Cantwell did a good job as a freshman filling in when Brian Brohm was injured, and in fact led UL to a win over K-State in 2006, but he has not put up outstanding numbers, and when he is pressured he doesn’t quite have the mobility to escape trouble.
This has to be a concern for Steve Kragthorpe, because in the game against Kentucky, where the Cardinals dropped a 27-2 decision. Cantwell was sacked just once but he was hurried on numerous occasions, and was just 20 of 43 for 152 yards, which represents a pitiful 3.5 yards per attempt. And he threw three interceptions. So despite the NFL dimensions, the jury has to remain very much out on Cantwell. And as long as Louisville’s rebuilding running game (1.8 yards per carry against Kentucky) isn’t providing the kind of ground support needed to sustain drives, the Cards will fall victim to a K-State defense that has not played stern opposition thus far (Montana State and North Texas) but has limited foes to 3.1 yards per play.
Louisville plays some defense too, but Kansas State QB Josh Freeman (two TD passes or more in seven of his last eight games) is a more finished product right now than Cantwell. Freeman (5 TD’s, no INT’s this year – 3rd in nation in pass efficiency) is hitting almost 76% of his passes, and he can spread it around pretty well, especially to Brandon Banks and Aubrey Quarles, a couple of junior college transfers. The JUCO influence is very heavy on the defensive side of the ball for Kansas State as well, and the early results have been encouraging.
Certainly we recognize that Louisville has won 23 of its last 25 at home. But last year that home ATS mark was just 1-4, and the home opener against Kentucky was an embarrassment. The Cards limped to a 6-6 finish last year, even with a pre-season Heisman contender in Brian Brohm at the helm. The passing game appears a lot more limited at the moment.
Let’s go with Kansas State, the four-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds.
JAY’S PLAY: KANSAS STATE -4 **
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Kansas St./Louisville side Winner
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