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Week 12: Bowling Green vs. Toledo Preview & Pick

Week 12: Bowling Green Falcons vs Toledo Rockets Free College Football Pick

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Week 12: Bowling Green at Toledo Preview & Pick

Toledo suffered a brutal meltdown against Northern Illinois last week. If the Rockets want to stay in the MAC and bowl hunt, they need a big win over Bowling Green this Wednesday—a team they’ve lost to three straight times.

GO INSIDE THIS MATCHUP WITH OUR ATS STATS —>
Falcons vs. Rockets
Date: Wednesday, November 17, 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH
Broadcast: ESPN2
Falcons vs. Rockets lines from Bodog.com
Falcons: +11.5
Rockets: -11.5
Total: N/A
Bet Now @ Bodog.com

Toledo (6-4, 5-5 ATS) is reeling after a 65-30 loss at Northern Illinois. The game was essentially a MAC West division championship, and the Rockets failed the test miserably. Yes, the team was an 11-point underdog, but there’s no excuse for getting crushed that badly.

The defeat snaps a three-game winning streak, though Toledo is 1-2 ATS in that span. The offense is struggling with redshirt freshman Terrance Owens under center. Owens has replaced the injured Austin Danton, and it has been ugly. Against Northern Illinois, Owens was 18-38 for just 186 yards and an interception. He did toss a pair of touchdowns, though. Getting the ball to running back Adonis Thomas must be made top priority; the junior racked up 152 yards and two touchdowns on just 10 carries last week.

Toledo was showing signs of improvement defensively, but Northern Illinois undid all that. The Rockets were steamrolled for 584 yards; most of the damage came on the ground, with the Huskies pumping out 422 rush yards at a gaudy 7.8 yards per pop. Toledo has struggled to stop the run all year, but not like that.

Bowling Green (2-8, 5-5 ATS) was on the wrong end of a 24-21 loss at Miami (OH) last week. The Falcons failed to cover as 2.5-point underdogs.

On the bright side, Bowling Green showed some life. The Falcons rallied, scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns, only to see the RedHawks kick a game-winning field goal as time expired. Turnovers plagued the Falcons, as they have all season. Bowling Green gave the ball away three times, which led to 17 points for Miami.

The Falcons didn’t really deserve to win, anyway—the offense managed just 220 yards. The ground game has been pathetic all season, averaging 60 yards per outing, and it was no different against Miami (44 yards on 27 carries).

The defense actually played pretty well, though. Bowling Green recovered three fumbles and added a pair of sacks against the RedHawks. Part of the success was just dumb luck and takeaways; Miami was 7-14 on third down conversions, which is much too high. Bowling Green also allowed the RedHawks to complete 76 percent of their passes.

Bowling Green has won and covered three straight meetings between these squads, including last year’s 38-24 home victory. The streak ends now. Toledo is vulnerable against the run, but the Falcons can’t take advantage. The Rockets will also work to get Adonis Thomas the ball more often, which should lead to more points.

The Falcons should bounce back from a bad loss and win big this week.

Bowling Green at Toledo pick: Toledo -11.5

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About Ian Van Den Hurk

Ian Van Den Hurk has covered amateur and pro sports for years, including a successful run handicapping anything from football to mixed martial arts. Looking for more sports betting tips and expert sports handicapping articles from Ian V? We've got your back...


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