Week 11: Nevada Wolf Pack vs Fresno State Bulldogs Free College Football Pick
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Week 11: No. 21 Nevada at Fresno State Preview
Nevada takes its near-unstoppable offense to Fresno State this weekend. If the Bulldogs can pull off the upset, they’ll suddenly be in the WAC championship discussion—but that’s a tall order against the surging Wolf Pack.
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Date: Saturday, November 13, 10:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, California
Broadcast: ESPN
Wolf Pack vs. Bulldogs lines from Bodog.com
Wolf Pack: -8.5
Bulldogs: +8.5
Total: 68.5
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Wolf Pack vs. Bulldogs
The Wolf Pack (8-1, 4-4 ATS) have strung together consecutive victories since their lone loss of the season, including last week’s 63-17 romp over Idaho. Nevada delivered a long-overdue victory for college football bettors, covering for the first time in five games. The offense put up video game numbers against the Vandals, rampaging its way to 844 yards. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick—often known for his legs rather than his arm—was 20-30 for 320 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. The ground game still delivered, though, punishing Idaho for 453 yards.
On the other side of the ball, there’s some work to be done. Nevada has allowed nearly 29 points per game over its last three contests. The Wolf Pack do a great job against the run—they rank 19th in the country at 114 yards per game—but the secondary is a sieve. The Wolf Pack is allowing 259 yards per game through the air. There was some improvement against Idaho, as Nevada held quarterback Nathan Enderle to 15-34 for 224 yards.
Fresno State (6-2, 3-4 ATS) is riding high after a wild 40-34 win at Louisiana Tech. The victory snapped a three-game losing skid against the spread. With Nevada and Boise State in line over the next two games, the Bulldogs have a chance to take over the WAC. They’re certainly not hurting for offense, as they rank 20th in the country at just over 34 points per outing. The attack is usually pretty balanced, but Robbie Rouse was an absolute best against Louisiana Tech. He carried 43 times for 286 yards and a touchdown.
Unfortunately, the defense is full of holes. Run, pass—the Bulldogs can’t stop anything. Fresno State is allowing more than 27 points per game, and the rush defense looks especially vulnerable at 144 yards allowed per game. If there’s a silver lining, it’s Fresno State’s pass rush; the team ranks fourth in the country in sacks, not to mention 12th in tackles for a loss.
The Bulldogs are 7-3 in their last 10 games (5-4-1 ATS) against Nevada, but the Wolf Pack have won the past two. Nevada has also dominated against the spread lately, winning four of the past five against Fresno State. The trend will likely continue on Saturday. Fresno State is good enough to hang around—for a while. Eventually, though, Nevada’s No. 2 rushing attack is going to expose the Bulldogs. The Wolf Pack will pull away for a big victory.
Nevada at Fresno State pick: Nevada -8.5
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