CFB Football Previews – Louisiana Monroe Warhawks vs Florida St. Seminoles
OK, Florida State, time to justify that lofty perch in the NCAA preseason coaches’ poll. Even with Christian Ponder gone, it seems everyone expects E.J. Manuel to lead this team to major BCS contention. A blowout win over UL-Monroe would be the first step toward living up to the hype.
NCAAF Week 1: UL Monroe vs Florida State Seminoles
Date: Saturday, September 3, 2011
Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Broadcast: ESPNU HD
UL Monroe Warhawks at Florida State Seminoles Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: OFF
Spread: Florida State -29
Over/Under: 55.5
Click here for the ATS Gambling Report for this game!
UL Monroe Warhawks (0-0)
The Warhawks’ quest for their first winning FBS season ever continues. They were close last season, going 5-7 in the Sun Bowl. If they can get some minor offensive improvements, they may finally hit the .500 mark this season.
Quarterback Kolton Browning isn’t awful. He completed 61.9 percent of his passes for 2,552 yards, 17 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season; those are decent numbers for a QB who likes to run. Browning’s passing stats could stand to improve with his entire receiving corps back this season. The Warhawks hope that happens, as their rushing attack is among the nation’s weakest.
The Warhawks also had a serviceable defense last year, especially against the run, but they allowed their share of points because their offense turned the ball over too much. Instead of bend-but-don’t break, they were break-without-bending.
(6) Florida State Seminoles (0-0)
Last season’s 10-win effort was nothing to sneeze at for Florida State, as it hadn’t hit the double-digit win mark since 2003. The big question is whether or not the Seminoles can build on that mark and contend for a national title in 2011.
Defensively, they look pretty sound. Even if they aren’t amazingly good against the pass, they’re speedy and athletic and they’re stout against the run. But what about FSU’s offense? [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Seminoles appear to be in good hands with Chris Thompson carrying the ball. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry last season and stands to improve on his 846 yards of 2010. He battled what appeared to be a serious back injury during the preseason but is reportedly back practicing with the team in full. Still, don’t be surprised if seniors Ty Jones and Jermaine Thomas get the ball more on Saturday.
But enough stalling. You know what the big question is. What about E.J. Manuel? Can he be an effective successor to Christian Ponder at quarterback? In limited duty last season, he was turnover-prone, but he did flash good mobility and he completed 69.9 per cent of his passes.
Betting Trends:
ULMON are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
Under is 8-3 in FSU last 11 games on grass.
FSU are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.
The pick:
Week 1 isn’t the week to worry about Manuel’s future. The talent divide between UL Monroe and FSU is big. Manuel should do fine with plenty of experienced receivers and runners at his disposal and the Seminoles “D” is a tier above the Warhawks’ offense.
Don’t overthink this one too much. The game is at Doak Campbell stadium, FSU’s stomping grounds, and will probably produce a blowout.
UL Monroe vs Florida State prediction: Florida State 44, UL Monroe 13
Money Line: OFF
Spread: Florida State -28
Over/Under: OVER 55.5
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