USC vs California NCAA Football Odds
The USC Trojans were underdogs heading into last week’s matchup with the Oregon State Beavers, but they came away victorious 31-14 on the road during a Friday night ESPN showing. This week, they’ll head back down to their native California, as they prepare to take on the struggling California Golden Bears.
USC (6-3, 3-2 Pac-12) @ California (1-8, 0-6 Pac 12)
Saturday, Nov. 9 3:00 PM ET @ Memorial Stadium
Spread: USC -17
O/U: OFF
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USC
The Trojans haven’t been what we expected them to be this season, but it’s safe to say that they’re one giant leap ahead of where the Golden Bears are at this point in the process.
Through 10 weeks, the Trojans have compiled a 6-3 record, and they’re coming off of two straight victories over the Oregon State Beavers and Utah Utes.
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Their Pac-12 record of 3-2 is underwhelming at best, but all three of those victories have come in sequence since their first two losses to Washington State and Arizona State. Entering the contest with Cal, USC is winning games with its defense.
The offense is still struggling to find its stride without Matt Barkley in the backfield, but the defense is giving up just 18.7 points per game to its opponents—the 13th-best mark in the nation. Against the Golden Bears, priority No. 1 has to be locking down Chris Harper.
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The sophomore wide out has the most yards by a long shot in the receiving game, and his five touchdowns through the air is also a team-leading number.
The Trojans must put pressure on Jared Goff, but if you take Harper out of the equation early, you take away the team’s No. 1 option.
California
Don’t expect anything tricky from the Golden Bears.
They’re going to throw the football, and they’re going to do it the entire game whether it works or not.
At this point in the year, California is 110th in yards per game on the ground. Compare that to being eighth in the country in passing, and it’s easy to see why there won’t be much deviation from the season-long game plan.
Unfortunately for Cal, those passing yards are not turning into nearly as many points as they hoped for.
The team is 95th in the country in scoring, as it is scoring just 23.4 points per outing. To make matters worse, the defense has been, well, worse.
The team is allowing its opponents to score a ridiculous 42.8 points per game, which puts it at 122nd in the FBS. Historically, USC has won the last five outings in this matchup straight up. The Trojans may be 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games, but the less-talented Golden Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games.
The only way Cal stands a chance is if the Trojans shoot themselves in the foot—something they’ve been known to do as of late. The Golden Bears need USC to make mental mistakes that result in turnovers, otherwise, this one will go pretty much as expected.
The road team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these two teams, and it would be surprising to see a different outcome in 2013.
Prediction: USC 37 – California 20