Southern Cal at Oregon
A trip to the Rose Bowl will likely be at stake when the Southern California Trojans head to Eugene to face the Oregon Ducks in a Pac-10 battle between one-loss conference foes.
Oddsmakers have tagged the Ducks as 3-point home underdogs for Saturday’s contest. The Trojans have won three of the last four meetings with Oregon, including last year’s 44-10 beating at Los Angeles Coliseum.
CLICK HERE FOR WEEK 9 EXPERT PICKS FOR THIS WEEK’S COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS??? —–>
The Ducks have been on a mission to repair their season since an opening-week loss to the Boise State Broncos which ended in an ugly confrontation involving running back LeGarrette Blount, who struck a BSU player and was suspended for the season. Since that incident, Oregon has had a dark cloud over the program.
Like in most sports, winning cures everything. And nothing would get the Ducks back into BCS talks like a win over the Trojans. Since Week 1, Oregon has rolled, winning six straight games while covering the spread in five of those contests. The Ducks’ most recent victory was a 43-19 stomping of Washington last weekend.
Oregon’s offense was highly touted heading into the season, but it has been the defense which has made the difference for the program. The Ducks’ stop unit is ranked second in the Pac-10, allowing only 16.7 points on 297 yards against per game. They’ve been especially stingy against the pass, giving up an average of only 178 yards through the air, and have only been scored on five times by opposing quarterbacks.
The only other Pac-10 defense better than Oregon’s this season is that of Southern Cal. The Trojans rank 16th in the nation in total yards allowed with 292 per game. They’ve limited foes to an average of just over 15 points and lead the conference in sacks, tackles for a loss, and have held opposing rushing attacks to under 80 yards on the ground per game.
However, in the past two weeks that defense has begun to show chinks in the armor. Two weeks ago, USC allowed Notre Dame to make things interesting in the fourth quarter after dominating the first half of the ball game. That cost Trojans backers a payday as the Irish covered the 10-point spread with a 34-27 loss.
Last week, Oregon State gave Southern Cal a scare. The Beavers, who upset USC last season, rumbled for 482 yards against the Pac-10’s premier defense, losing a 42-36 squeaker as 21-point underdogs. The Trojans gave up 153 of those gains on the ground and suffered from turnovers on offense.
Freshman quarterback Matt Barkley had one of his roughest starts of his young college career. He passed for over 200 yards and two touchdowns, but was also picked off twice. Barkley has struggled with turnovers in his recent starts, totaling a 4-to-4 TD-to-INT count.
Luckily, the Trojans’ rushing game was on the ball, totaling 227 yards and three scores. Southern Cal, behind a talented stable of running backs, ranks just fourth in the conference in average yards. Saturday was their biggest output on the ground since their Week 3 loss to Washington.
The Ducks will rely on their running game, which is second in the conference at 211 yards per game. Oregon has been able to make up for the loss of Blount thanks to freshman running back LaMichael James, who is averaging over 100 yards per game. James has scored six times, which is second only to quarterback Jeremiah Masoli’s seven rushing touchdowns.
Masoli came back from a knee injury to pass for 157 yards and a score last week against the Huskies. He added 54 yards on the ground and two rushing touchdowns. Last year, Masoli passed for 154 yards and an interception versus Southern Cal. The Trojans have done a good job against mobile quarterbacks this season, locking down Ohio State’s Terrelle Pryor for 177 yards passing and just 34 yards on the ground.
Books have set Saturday’s total at 46.5. Oregon has an over/under record of 4-3 while USC posts an over/under count of 3-4. Last year’s game played under the 56-point total. The last four meetings between these Pac-10 rivals have played to the under.
