Week 4 College Football Keys
Each week the college football schedule looks overwhelming considering the amount of plays available to bet on each week. One of the best ways to breakdown the games are to organize the card into different categories. Home underdogs are usually a good place to start, so let’s take a look which teams playing at home are getting points this week.
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South Carolina +3 – The Gamecocks have been playing better, and Ole Miss came into this season rated highly based on last year’s results.
Nevada +7.5 – This game is very interesting, as the Wolfpack have really struggled this year and there’s not a better way to rebound than to beat a good BCS conference team in a home nationally televised primetime game. However, this team really looked outclassed against Notre Dame and even Colorado State.
Mississippi State +12.5 – Some sharp bettors jumped all over Mississippi State +14 early in the week which drove this line down. If want to bet the Bulldogs against LSU then you should probably wait until kickoff. New head coach Dan Mullen seems to have this team playing much better in previous years, especially on offense.
Wyoming +5 – The Cowboys played Texas very well at home two weeks ago, while UNLV is coming off of a close home win against Hawaii. I’m not sure if I would trust this soft Rebels team to cover a spread of more than a field goal in Laramie, especially in a place that has traditionally been tough for visitors.
Virginia Tech +3 – This spread is a ridiculous over adjustment based on the results of the last few weeks. The Hokies never win pretty, especially not last week over Nebraska. Meanwhile, everyone saw Miami win two nationally televised games against Florida State and Georgia Tech. The Hurricanes are still a young team, and this will be their toughest road test so far this year.
Bowling Green +16.5 – The Falcons are getting a great deal of points here against a tough Boise State team. This is their second straight road game, as they are coming off of a blowout road win at Fresno State. The Broncos will also be without their best running back for this game due to injury. Bowling Green can put points on the board, and MAC teams have traditionally really got up for these home games against better non-conference teams. Remember what happened just a few weeks ago between Colorado and Toledo?
Purdue +7 – Notre Dame is in somewhat of a tough spot here, as they are coming off of two consecutive physically and emotionally draining games against Michigan and Michigan State. However, last week’s game could be costly, as they lost their star receiver Michael Floyd for the year with a broken collarbone. In addition, Jimmy Clausen suffered a foot injury, and he was clearly not playing as well in the 2nd half as a result.
Kentucky +21.5 – This game is an obvious letdown spot for Florida, as they are coming off of last week’s emotionally draining win against Tennessee. Urban Meyer is still talking about last week’s game in the media this week. This is a great spot to go against Florida, as they are going on the road to supposedly lowly Kentucky while several Gators are dealing with flu symptoms. The Wildcats are also in a great revenge situation here after getting absolutely destroyed by Florida last year.
Another one of the biggest things I look for is big games from the previous week as well as in the next week as potential look ahead spots for some teams. Some games that had a great deal of emotion from last week for one or both teams are:
Georgia Tech/Miami, Louisville/Kentucky, Northern Illinois/Purdue, Tennessee/Florida, Nebraska/Virginia Tech, Michigan State/Notre Dame, USC/Washington, and Texas Tech/Texas.
Also some potential look ahead games for next week are LSU/Georgia, Michigan/Michigan State, Oklahoma/Miami, Washington/Notre Dame, USC/California.
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