CFB Betting – Venue/ Stadium: Bill Snyder Stadium, MANHATTAN, KS
Kansas State (4-0) is ranked for the first time in 4 seasons and while they are coming off an upset win last week they are still a home underdog to a Missouri (2-2) team that they have lost to 5 straight times.
Time/Date: 3:30 PM EST Saturday, October 8, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Missouri -160 / Kansas State +140
Spread (ATS): Missouri -3
Over/Under: 56
Missouri Tigers vs. No. 20 Kansas State Wildcats Preview
NCAAF lines have Mizzou as 3-point away favorites with a total of 56.
In their last games Kansas State beat a ranked Baylor team 36-35 and Missouri did not play that bad in losing 38-28 to 3rd ranked Oklahoma on the road.
Both of the Tigers losses this season have come to teams ranked in the top 25.
While Kansas State has a good defense, in terms of rankings, ranked 16th in the nation, they have given up over 400 total yards in each of their last 2 games. That is not a good sign facing a Mizzou squad that ranks 11th in the nation in total yards per game.
The Tigers an their 37th ranked passing offense is led by duel-threat QB James Franklin, who is also the team’s 2nd leading rusher. He has a legit WR corps led by the duo of T.J. Moe (23 rec 291 yards 1 TD) and Wes Kemp (13 rec 153 yards 2 TD) and they will be facing a KSU pass defense that ranks 43rd in the nation and gave up 346 passing yards last week.
The strength of the Kansas State defense is their run defense and they will be going up of the strength of Missouri, which is their rushing offense. Henry Josey is averaging an incredible 12.4 yards per carry and against Oklahoma last week he rushed for 133 yards averaging 9.5 yards per carry. If the Wildcats can stuff the run and make the Tigers beat them through the air they will be in good shape. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
One thing Mizzou has to do is play better on 3rd downs, as they only covered 3 of 12 of them in the loss to Oklahoma and on the season is only converting on 29.1% of their 3rd down conversions.
For Kansas State on offense it is all about the run and their rushing offense ranks a legit 18th in the nation, but their passing offense only ranks 115th. QB Collin Klein is the leading rusher of the Wildcats and he and RB John Hubert are a tough duo to take down and if these guys have big games KSU will win. However, that will not be easy facing a Mizzou run defense that ranks 16th in the nation.
Betting Trends
This season both Big 12 teams are 3-1 ATS and Kansas State has an O/U record of 2-2 and Missouri has an O/U record of 3-1.
The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite, and has an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record.
The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 Big 12 games, and has an Over record of 7-2 in their last 9 games.
Jason’s Pick: The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 5 games between these conference rivals and that trend will continue this Saturday. Mizzou will play a well-balanced offensive game and play good D against the run, as the Tigers will win this game and cover the spread. Take the Over as well, as both teams will score a few TD’s.
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