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South Alabama Jaguars vs. Hawaii Warriors Beavers Gambling Prediction & Week 14 Preview

Jaguars vs Warriors NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping

In what might be one of the least-watched games of week 14, the South Alabama Jaguars are set to take on the Hawaii Warriors in a battle of 2-win teams. The Jaguars are representing the Sun Belt Conference, while Hawaii comes from the Mountain West. Neither team has been able to establish their offense at this point in the year, but both have also struggled to keep their opponents in check. Something’s got to give, and the game could be higher scoring than some anticipate.

South Alabama Jaguars (2-10) vs Hawaii Warriors (2-9)
Saturday December 1, 2012
Aloha Stadium
11:00 PM ET
Moneyline: Hawaii -230, South Alabama +200 from Bovada
Spread: Hawaii -6
O/U: 53

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South Alabama Jaguars

The South Alabama Jaguars have underwhelmed this season, which isn’t too much of a shocker for most casual NCAA fans. Their first win came against a lowly Nicholls State team, and their second victory was in a hard-fought double-overtime contest against the struggling Florida Atlantic Owls.

The team is allowing 30 points per game, which is bad, but they’re also scoring just 19.4 points per contests, which has been the source of their problems. They rank just 113th in the nation in points per game, and they’ve only scored greater than 20 points five times.

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The key player for South Alabama is going to be wide receiver Jereme Jones. He has seven touchdowns on the year—five more than any other receiver on the team—and he has been the clear-cut No. 1 option in a passing game that has been extremely erratic.

On defense, the Jaguars don’t excel in any one area, but they are much more balanced than the Warriors at this point. They are much more middle-of-the-pack than their record indicates, as most major defensive categories rank between 44th and 60th in the country.

Hawaii Warriors

Between two teams who have disappointed, home-field advantage is always important. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Warriors will have the crowd on their side, but they’ll also have one other key element when South Alabama travels across the country—time. This contest will be played at the equivalent of 11:00 PM ET, and that kind of adjustment can cause a catastrophe for an inconsistent football program on the road.

Surprisingly, Hawaii has been fantastic this year when it comes to pass defense. They are allowing just 185.9 yards per game through the air, which is good enough for 15th in the country. South Alabama has been better this year passing than running, so Hawaii’s pass defense versus the Jags’ passing offense will likely be the key matchup in this contest.

Both of these teams are 10th in their respective conferences, and neither has a clear-cut advantage over the other. What it will come down to is how much South Alabama is allowed to throw against Hawaii. If the Jags can take away the one true area of success that Hawaii has encountered, they could sneak out a win as the road team. However, if the Warriors’ pass defense remains strong and shuts down an already weak passing game from South Alabama, this game should be theirs at home in the season finale.

Trends

•Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
•Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
•Over is 6-0 in Warriors last 6 games in December.
•Over is 6-0 in Warriors last 6 home games.
•Over is 9-1 in Warriors last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
•Over is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 games on fieldturf.
•Over is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
•Over is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

O/U Pick: Over 53
Score Prediction: Hawaii 34 – South Alabama 20

By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"