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No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns Week 6 Free Pick

Red River Rivalry – Venue/ Stadium: Cotton Bowl, DALLAS, TX

The HUGE Red River Rivalry game has BCS implications this season with Texas and Oklahoma at 4-0 and it is only the 2nd time in the last 7 years where both teams are undefeated. The Sooners have played a much tougher schedule, but Texas is playing with a lot of confidence and their defense has been playing well.

Time/Date: 12 PM EST Saturday, October 8, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Texas +300 / Oklahoma -360
Spread (ATS): Oklahoma -10
Over/Under: 57.5

No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns Preview

NCAAF lines have Oklahoma as 10-point favorites in this game with a total of 57.5.

In their last games on Saturday Texas beat Iowa State 37-14 and Oklahoma embarassed Ball State beating them 62-6.

The big question for the Texas defense is can their 16th ranked pass defense contain Landry Jones and a OU pass offense that ranks 5th in the nation in passing yards per game? Jones has a couple of great WR’s in Ryan Broyles (38 rec 476 yards 6 TD) and Jaz Reynolds and while Reynolds only has 10 receptions on the season he is averaging 23.4 yards per catch. Texas has to play better pass defense than they did last week when they gave up 251 yards through the air. The Texas secondary will not get much help from their pass rush, as the Longhorns only have 5 sacks on the season and the OU offensive line has only given up 2 sacks.

One big question mark for the Sooners before the season was their rushing offense, but former walk-on RB Dominique Whaley leads OU’s 44th ranked rushing offense and he is averaging a solid 5.4 yards per carry.

The Longhorns have to deal with a great OU offense and if they can come up with some turnovers, which they forced 3 of last week, they have a legit chance at an upset.

Case McCoy and David Ash will be the QB’s for the Longhorns in this game with Garrett Gilbert out for the season with a shoulder injury. Texas has a decent, but not great, WR corps and they will be going up against an OU pass defense that ranks 59th in the nation. Also, Oklahoma has a good pass rush with 11 sacks on the season and the offensive line of the Longhorns have to keep the Sooners of their 2 young QB’s. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

A couple of players that have to play well for Texas to win is the RB duo of Malcolm Brown (327 yards 1 TD) and RB Foswhitt Whittaker (141 yards 4 TD). The Sooners’ pass defense ranks 50th in the nation and if they can stuff the run they will move to 5-0 on the season.

Betting Trends

So far on the season the Longhorns are 1-5 ATS against teams with a winning record, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and has an Under record in 5 of their last 7 Big 12 games. Also, in an interesting betting trend the Longhorns have failed to cover the spread in their last 6 neutral site games.

The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite of 3.5-10 points, and the total has gone Over in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.

Jason’s Pick: Texas is a good team, but they are not a great one, which Oklahoma is. The OU offense is way too much for the Longhorns to handle and when this game becomes a shootout Texas does not have the weapons to keep up. Take the Sooners giving 10 points and the total will also go Over.

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By Jason Green

Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.