Red Wolves vs Ducks NCAAF Betting + Handicapping Picks
The Ducks lost star RB LaMichael James and QB Darron Thomas, but they still are staked and their defense may be much better than last season.
Venue/ Stadium: Autzen Stadium, EUGENE, OR
Time/Date: 10:30 PM EST Saturday, September 1, 2012
NCAAF Odds From: Bovada
Moneyline: OFF
Spread: USC -37
Over/Under: 68.5
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. No. 5 Oregon Ducks Preview
Arkansas State is obviously not from a big conference, but they are no slouch and they were 10-3 last season and played n a bowl game. NCAAF Lines have Oregon as a HUGE 37-point home favorite with a total of 68.5.
With Thomas gone Marcus Mariota takes over under center for the Ducks and he is the first opening season freshman starting QB for Oregon in the last 21 years. RB De’Anthony Thomas is the leading receiver from last season, but after him the Ducks have an inexperienced WR corps. The Ducks do not air it out much, but at least they will be facing an Arkansas State pass defense that ranked 69th in the nation last season.
The Ducks’ rushing offense was one of the best in the nation last season behind James and they may not skip a beat this season since Kenyon Barner returns and he rushed for almost 1,000 yards last season and Thomas chimed in for almost 600 rushing yards. One of the reasons that Arkansas State is not a bigger underdog is that they have a solid run defense, which ranked 13th in the nation last season.
QB Ryan Aplin, who was the Sun Belt player of the year last season and passed for almost 3,600 yards with 19 TD, leads Arkansas State. However, he lost his 2 leading WR’s due to suspension and some new guys will have to step up. The Ducks do not have a great secondary, but they are athletic and Aplin tossed 16 picks last season that is a concern. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Arkansas State though they hit the gold mine when ex Auburn star RB enrolled at the school, but he was dismissed from the team for violating team rules and they could have used him since he rushed for 143 yards in the BCS title game against Oregon a couple of years ago.
Aplin was also the leading rusher for the Red Wolves last season and he will miss the 2nd leading rusher, who is gone. They will have a young rushing attack and will be facing an Oregon LB corps that is experienced and one of the better units in the nation.
In some betting trends for this non-conference match up Arkansas State is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, and they have an Under record of 13-2-1 in their last 16 non-conference games.
Oregon is 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. teams from the Sun-Belt Conference, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 non-conference games.
Jason’s Pick: I think Oregon will win this game, but Arkansas State is a decent team and they will cover the big spread.
