Boise State vs Fresno State College Football Handicapping
A rivalry that has been fairly one-sided in recent years takes on a different form this season, with the Fresno State Bulldogs favored over the Boise State Broncos for the first time in the last seven meetings.
Boise State Broncos (2-1) at Fresno State Bulldogs (2-0)
Date: Friday, September 20, 2013
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Bulldog Stadium
City: Fresno, California
O/U Odds: 66.5
Spread: Fresno State -4.5
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It might be a little misleading to say that the favorite has covered the spread in each of the last 11 meetings between these teams, because in each of the last seven meetings it’s been the Broncos who have won the game and covered the spread. This year’s meeting sees the Bulldogs installed as the favorite for the first time since 2005.
Boise State enjoyed the national spotlight on Friday night last week, beating up on Air Force, 42-20. Jay Ajayi was the star of the show, rushing for four touchdowns and a career-high 125 yards on 17 carries, a performance reportedly fuelled by pickle juice (Google it).
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Joe Southwick meanwhile, enjoyed the most efficient passing day in Boise State history, completing 27 of 29 passes for 287 yards and a touchdown, adding another touchdown on the ground. Matt Miller was his favorite target, hauling in 10 balls for 112 yards on the night. All told, the Bronco offense accumulated 533 total yards, and didn’t punt the ball a single time in the game. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The team’s defense had some trouble stopping the run initially, but made some halftime adjustments to get things under control in the second half. Air Force racked up 139 rushing yards and 17 points in the first half, but the Boise State defense limited them to just a field goal in the second half.
Fresno State was helped out by a pair of punt return touchdowns in their 41-25 win over Fresno State. Isaiah Burse was the hero of the game, scoring on returns of 61 and 58 yards, and adding a receiving touchdowns for three total scores on the night. Quarterback Derek Carr threw for three scores, including one to receiver Davante Adams, who caught a touchdown pass for the 10th consecutive game, a Mountain West record.
The Fresno State defense had some trouble with mobile SMU quarterback Chris Brown, who rushed for a pair of scores and added a third through the air.
Boise State has seemingly returned to form after a disappointing opening loss to Washington. Expect them to continue to roll against a Fresno State team that they have dominated in recent years. Quarterback Joe Southwick is 13-3 as Boise State’s starter.
A surprising stat that the Broncos will have to work at, is that they are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against Mountain West opponents, but they are 13-2 straight up in those games, with those two losses coming by a combined three points. They’re also 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games.
The Broncos are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these teams.
The play: Boise State +4.5
