San Diego Country Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Navy Midshipmen vs San Diego State Aztecs Preview Free College Football Pick
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Midshipmen at Aztecs
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Thursday December 23 – 8:00PM
Venue: Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California
Navy (9-3) vs San Diego State (8-4)
Moneyline: SDSU -200, Navy +165
Spread Favourite: SDSU -4.5
Over/Under: 60.5
(Odds courtesy of BetUS) – BET NOW!!!
Navy
It was another typically good season for Navy. They are making a habit out of beating Notre Dame now and generally win when it is expected. The lone exception was a three point home loss to Duke. Fans in Annapolis are still scratching their head about that one as it would have given them 10 regular season wins and possibly put them into a more prestigious and lucrative bowl spot.
The Midshipmen are not doing anything new this season. They are always among the top running teams in the nations (5th this year) and out-scheme opponents with their old school triple option attack. While some teams put in a new wrinkle or two for the bowls, I wouldn’t expect that from Navy. QB Ricky Dobbs isn’t enjoying as good a season as last year but he is as good as anyone in the nation at directing this kind of attack.
These two teams haven’t met since 1997 but did have a common opponent in Air Force this season. Navy lost to the Falcons in a low scoring affair while the Aztecs scored a two point victory. It bodes well for Navy that Air Force, which runs a similar attack, had no problem running on SDSU, to the tune of 312 yards. If Navy can do the same they will be in the game to the end as well. 
San Diego State
I have to admit I really like this San Diego State team. They may have four losses but they are only 15 points away from being undefeated and gave the TCU Horned frogs their toughest challenge of the season. With the exception of BYU, all their losses were to teams with 10 wins or more. Brady Hoke has the Aztecs primed to compete in the ever changing Mountain West Conference.
The reason to like the Aztecs is their offense. Ryan Lindley is a hidden gem at QB and they have the best pair of receivers in the nation with DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown. Both gained more than 1100 yards this season while averaging more than 18 yards per reception. This team makes a lot of big plays in the passing game…and they have balance with frosh RB Ronnie Hillman, the best Aztec running back since Marshall Faulk.
As identified earlier the Aztecs are not great against the triple option. Still, even though they gave up a ton of yardage against Air Force they were able to get stops in the right situations to get the Falcons off the field to win the game. This should be an up and down game of contrasting styles.
The Pick: SDSU has the advantage of being at home in this one and I think it is a big one. Usually the service academies are able to get the crowd on their side but this time the San Diego faithful will actually be able to cheer for their guys. For this reason and a couple of others I give the Aztecs the nod.
College Football Gambling Trends
Midshipmen are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Midshipmen are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Midshipmen are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. MWC.
Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
Aztecs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Aztecs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Aztecs are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Score Prediction: San Diego State 34 – Navy 28
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