Armed Forces Bowl – Army vs Southern Methodist Preview Free College Football Pick
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Black Knights vs Mustangs Matchup
Wednesday December 30 – 2:30PM
Ford Stadium – Dallas ,Texas
Army (6-6) vs SMU (7-6)
Moneyline: SMU -295, Army +235
Spread Favourite: SMU -7
Over/Under: 52
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Army
It was a good season for Army as they find themselves in a bowl for the first time in a while. Most of their losses were pretty close but they weren’t able to breakthrough and win a game against a quality opponent. Like the other service academies these guys run a triple option offense and their success depends on discipline and high precision execution because their is a a real talent gap between them and most opponents.
Army enters the contest 10th in the nation in rushing offense so it will be no secret how they will try and attack the SMU defense. That defense gave up more than 250 yards to Navy earlier in the season and if the Black Knights can have similar success moving the ball on the ground they just might be able to keep pace with a Mustang offense that has much more dangerous weapons than they do.
This is a tough matchup for Army because they are not very good at coming back with their run oriented attack. SMU is not exactly a defensive stalwart but if they are able to stall out just a few drives their offense should be able to have success. Army also has the disadvantage of playing SMU in their home stadium. This game might have been created for teams like the Black Knights but this year there is little in their favour with this matchup.
SMU
Its not really fair that SMU gets to host a bowl given that their season was a disappointment in most respects. 
They showed some flashes here and there and should be a team to be reckoned with next year in Conference USA but many thought that this would be the year they could take a leap. It was clear from their performance in the Championship Game that they are not quite among the elite of C-USA yet.
The SMU attack is likely to give the Cadet defense some problems. The QB play of Kyle Padron can be a little iffy at times but the compliment of physical running back Zach Line makes this offense much harder to defense You know that coach June Jones wants to throw the ball but with Line in tow averaging more than 6 yards per carry he doesn’t have to. They also have the ability to grind out games when they want which is something spread teams usually struggle with.
SMU really shouldn’t have much of a problem dispatching the Cadets. They have been cooled out knowing they were hosting a home game for a few weeks so they have been able to enjoy some home cooking and keep their normal game prep routines. I expect them to have some lapses against the option because everybody does, but their offense should be more than able to overcome. There is a chance this one gets ugly.
The Pick: I love rooting for the underdog service academies but I don’t see much hope in this one. SMU should feel pretty comfortable most of the game.
College Football Gambling Trends
Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. CUSA.
Mustangs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Mustangs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.
Mustangs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Score Prediction: SMU 38 – Army 24
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