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Boise St. vs. Fresno St. Week 6 NCAA Lines & Spread Prediction

Venue/Stadium: Bulldog Stadium

The Boise State Broncos and the Fresno State Bulldogs have battled each other over the past decade as members of the Western Athletic Conference. However, Boise’s move to the Mountain West Conference has caused the 2011 edition of this regional matchup to become a non-conference affair.

Time/Date: 9 p.m. Eastern, October 7
College Football Odds from TheGreek
Moneyline: Boise State -1000
Spread (ATS): Boise State -20.5
Over/Under: 58

Interestingly enough, Fresno State will join Boise State in the Mountain West next year, so this will be the only year – at least for the time being – that these teams meet outside their respective leagues. Playing what is officially a non-conference game will put less pressure on each team, thereby creating a more mentally liberated environment in Fresno, California.

This context of mental freedom isn’t going to decide Friday’s game, but if anything, it does favor Fresno State. The Bulldogs are struggling without question; their loss to a bad Ole Miss team on Oct. 1 marked the lowest point of the season for head coach Pat Hill, who has simply not been able to elevate his team to Boise State’s level. Boise is everything Fresno wants to be, but the Bulldogs – as shown against Ole Miss – can’t sustain excellence for very long. Fresno State shows flashes of brilliance but then peters out very quickly. This is why Boise State is rightly a huge favorite on Friday night. However, the freedom of playing a non-conference game might enable FSU to play 40 strong minutes instead of 25 in this game. If Boise State and quarterback Kellen Moore aren’t sharp, one could legitimately visualize a relatively close game heading into the fourth quarter.

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Ultimately, the aspect of this matchup that will be too much for Fresno State to overcome is the quality depth on Boise State’s defensive front. Even if the Broncos’ offense struggles, BSU’s defense is likely to be dominant. Moore, Boise State’s star quarterback, could throw two or three interceptions, but unless those turnovers are converted into touchdowns, it’s hard to see where Fresno will get enough point production to win. An inspired half of football from Fresno’s defense in front of a charged-up home crowd could very well disrupt Boise State’s offense and rob Moore of rhythm. However, Moore is too good to be completely silenced; even on an off night, he should be able to produce 20 to 24 points. Fresno State’s offense will have a very hard time scoring 14 points against Boise if the game is relatively close.

College Football Betting Pick: Boise State

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About Dave Golokhov AKA Vegas Dave

Dave Golokhov has written for Playboy.com, BETUS Sportsbook, Sportsfanmagazine.com, FOX, Askmen.com, Sports-central, and the FOXSports.com Funhouse.