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TCU vs. Boise State Week 11 NCAA Lines & Spread Prediction

Gambling Matchup Week 11 – TCU Horned Frogs vs Boise State Broncos

There’s ample of history in this game for two teams who have never been in the same conference before… and will only be in the same conference for this single season, since TCU will head to the Big 12 next year.

Venue/Stadium: Bronco Stadium
Time/Date: 3:35 p.m. Eastern, November 12
College Football Odds from BetOnline
Moneyline: Boise State -600
Spread (ATS): Boise State -15
Over/Under: 58.5

TCU and Boise State have met three times in the last nine years, all in bowl games, all nail-biters, and all three with both teams ranked. In 2003, 18th-ranked Boise State prevailed 34-31 over 19th-ranked TCU in the Fort Worth Bowl.

In 2009, 11th-ranked TCU downed ninth-ranked Boise State by the score of 17-16 in the Poinsettia Bowl. The next year, a rematch occurred in the Fiesta Bowl, when the sixth-ranked Broncos beat the third-ranked Horned Frogs 17-10. Add to all that brief-but-rich on-field history the fact that this game was originally slated to be played in Fort Worth. After TCU announced its intentions to leave for the Big East (at that time), the game was moved to Boise.

Now this season, the two teams meet undefeated and alone at the top of the conference. While not the dominant seasons of years past, TCU has crafted a solid campaign by winning even when not playing at its best. TCU’s only losses this year were in a 50-48 shootout to Baylor and an overtime loss to SMU. Although lacking defensive dominance, the Frogs are powered by a punishing run game combined with accurate passing from Casey Pachall.

Waymon James, Ed Wesley, and Matthew Tucker lead the nation’s 16th-best rushing attack in terms of raw yards. TCU passes more than it needs to, because its three-headed running back monster could carry the offense much more if needed. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Last week the trio was ten yards short of pushing all three men to the 100-yard mark.

The Frogs’ defense will have to slow down the precision machine that is Boise State’s offense. It’s not as if TCU’s defense is awful, ranked 38th in the nation instead of its normal home in the top five. Boise State is led by senior Kellen Moore, who with last week’s win over UNLV became the quarterback with the most all-time wins in the Football Bowl Subdivision (46). Moore’s efficiency is so expected that his game seems to be underrated by the cognoscenti.

This year, Moore is completing 74 percent of his passes and has thrown 29 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He averages 279 yards per outing, and often finds himself on the bench in the fourth quarter of Boise State’s many blowout wins.

The Broncos’ biggest concern will be the health of leading rusher Doug Martin and defensive-line anchor Billy Winn, who both left last week’s game injured. As long as Martin and Winn can be reasonably effective, Boise State has little to worry about.

If they’re seriously limited, that’s how this game could become interesting. Take the Broncos at home while keeping an eye on their injuries.

Pick: Boise State

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About Dave Golokhov AKA Vegas Dave

Dave Golokhov has written for Playboy.com, BETUS Sportsbook, Sportsfanmagazine.com, FOX, Askmen.com, Sports-central, and the FOXSports.com Funhouse.