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Oregon vs. Washington Free Pick

Tony George – NCAA Free Play – Oregon vs. UW

Tony George

Tony George

Washington +10.5 vs. Oregon

I was going to release this as an official play this week, but instead want to keep the quality of Free Plays at a high level, and this one surely is one of those selections. Last week we took a road dog of
11 points in Texas Tech at Nebraska as a Free Selection and hammered home an outright dog winner for you. This week I look to the west and this game brings up an interesting scenario, public perception based line with a double digit home underdog who has proven time and time again, they are a better than average team.

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Washington has been a double digit dog 3 times this season, covering all 3 games. They opened with a cover against LSU at home (+18), then beat then top ranked USC at home (+22), and damn near beat Notre Dame on the road, a game they should have won straight up on the road as a 12 point pup. The following week they beat ranked Arizona at home as an underdog again (+4). That is a 3-0 ATS for the Huskies in big games as big dogs. Double digit dogs in BCS schools are lines based on public perception by oddsmakers that the favorite is perceived to be much better than their opponent. Oddsmakers adjust during the year to make the lines tighter, but for some reason the Huskies are still a value as an underdog at home, where they beat USC straight up.

This line opened at 7 points and John Q Public has beaten it up to a staggering 10.5 points as of Thursday. Going against the public is also a good bet for those of you not paying attention. Perhaps the sharps jumped on it early thinking value at the fall number of 7 was there for the taking, but now the line over another crucial fall number of 10. Maybe some of those sharps will get a chance to middle it. In any event both teams can score, and while Washington has some issues with run defense, the best QB on the field, is Jake Locker for Washington, no doubt the first QB taken in this year’s NFL draft.

One thing that is big in college ball is revenge, and Washington has lost 5 times in a row to the Ducks. Playing at home with the best player on the field, with a reputation of coming up huge in big games, and against a division opponent, has me all over the Huskies in this role on Saturday. There is no doubt Washington has some issues losing to Idaho (who is better than average) and others they should have beaten, but in a big game like this, I like their chances to hang tough as they have proven it this season against the nation’s elite teams.

Oregon vs. Washington Free Pick

Oregon 31 Washington 28 Grab the Points for a free selection

A few trends to consider:

Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington’s last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington’s last 7 games when playing Oregon
Washington is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Washington is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games at home

Big 12 Top Play on Saturday, also a MONSTER 4 Play flat bet card on Saturday for my BIGGEST day of selections in the NCAA this season to date, and on a solid 8-4-1 run headed into this week of NCAA Action!


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