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SMU vs. Navy Free Week 7 Preview & Pick (Oct. 16)

NCAA Football Odds – Southern Methodist Mustangs vs Navy Midshipmen Free Pick & Preview

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Mustangs at Midshipmen Matchup

Saturday October 16 – 3:45PM
Navy Marine Corps Memorial Stadium – Annapolis, Maryland
SMU (4-2) vs Navy (3-2)
Moneyline: Navy -125, SMU 105
Spread Favourite: Navy -1.5
Over/Under: 54
(Odds courtesy of BetUS) – BET NOW!!!


The Mustangs are enjoying a nice season sitting atop the Conference USA West division standings at a perfect 3-0.  They have been taking care of business but need to tune up before a critical game against Houston next week.  This week’s game against Navy may not mean much in the grand scheme of thing but if you aren’t prepared Navy can make you look silly with their triple option offense.

SMU can cause some problems when they have the ball as well.  June Jones’ teams always feature a pass happy attack and QB Kyle Padron seems to be getting the hang of directing it.  Last week Padron threw for 391 yards against Tulsa and with RB Zack Line back in the lineup they are getting just enough production on the ground to make this offense really sing.  These teams could not be more different in how they approach moving the football.

Although not in the same conference these two schools do have a history.  They have played the last couple of years with Navy taking both games.  Last year’s went to overtime and I am sure that SMU has a bad taste in their mouth after losing at home.  If they can make Navy put the ball in the air they may have a chance of reversing the result this year.


The Midshipmen are 3-2 after escaping with a win last week against a pretty average Wake Forest team.  They won by a single point on a rare scoring pass from Ricky Dobbs with less than a minute to go.  It looks like the Commander in Chief’s trophy is going to go to Air Force this season but Navy can still have a very good season.  It would not be a shock it they didn’t lose another game.

You always know exactly what you are going to get from Navy:  An honest effort and a steady diet of up the gut and option runs.  While other heavy running attacks run to set up a few key pass attempts I think Navy would be content to not throw a pass the entire game.  The Midshipmen are all about execution and even though they can not line up superior athletes they have success.

Navy has seemed a bit off this year.  Their ground game is a little off from the success in the past, ranking only tenth in the nation, and they are not converting as much for TDs.  Last year Ricky Dobbs scored 27 rushing touchdowns, this year he has only 5.  That is a huge dropoff in production so even though the Navy defense is putting up very solid numbers (they are 26th in yards allowed) the team is scuffling.  SMU is sure to test that third ranked passing defense on Saturday.

The Pick: I think that both offenses should be able to do what they want to do but give Navy the edge as the home team in another close battle.

College Football Gambling Trends

Mustangs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Mustangs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Mustangs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Midshipmen are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Midshipmen are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Midshipmen are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. CUSA.
Mustangs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Score Prediction:  Navy 31 – SMU 28

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.