Week 7: Texas vs. Nebraska Preview & Pick

Texas Longhorns vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Gambling Preview + Predictions

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Longhorns at No. 5 Cornhuskers Week 7 Lines

Date/Time: Saturday, October 16, 3:30 PM ET
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Lincoln NE
Broadcast: ABC
Texas Longhorns vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Betting Lines from JustBet
Money Line: Texas (+220) Nebraska (-280)
Spread: Nebraska -9 ½
Over/Under: TBA
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Texas Longhorns vs. No. 5 Nebraska Cornhuskers Preview

The wheels are falling off for Texas (3-2), who have lost 2 straight and have fallen out of the top 25 and they are in a for a killer game this Saturday playing at Nebraska (5-0), who have been stellar on both sides of the ball. College football lines have Nebraska as 9.5-point favorites in this game.

Texas had high hopes for this season, but after losing 2 straight and only being 1-1 in the Big 12 their BCS hopes will likely be dashed if they lose this game. The Longhorns are only averaging 16 points per game in their last 2 games

Nebraska has yet to lose this season and they have also not really been in a close game. Their rushing offense ranks 2^nd in the nation and their defense ranks 4^th in opponents’ points allowed (4^th). They are on track to play in the Big 12 title game, but their next few games will determine that, as after they play Texas they play at #20 Oklahoma State and then host #21 Missouri.

Both of these teams have a good offense, but I would not go out and bet the house on the Over, as in the last 4 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Under every time.

The Longhorns have not been a good ATS team for the last couple of years and this season that trend continues. They are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. However, Texas is generally favored in games, but not this week and in their last 8 games when they were the underdog they have covered the spread 6 times.

In their last games Texas lost to Oklahoma 28-20 and Nebraska looked very impressive in beating Kansas State 48-13.

This season Texas is 1-4 ATS and Nebraska is 2-2-1 ATS.

Man, can the Huskers run the ball! They are averaging 337.6 rushing yards per game and they are led by QB Taylor Martinez (660 passing yards 3 TD), who is the team’s leading rusher with 737 yards and 12 TD. RB Roy Helu Jr. (415 yards 5 TD) joins him in the backfield and together these guys are an awesome tandem.

Last week in their win over Kansas State Martinez rushed for 241 yards with 4 TD and Helu Jr. rushed for 110 yards with 1 TD. Each averaged at least 13 yards per carry in the game and each had a run of at least 68 yards.

Texas’ rushing defense ranks 19^th in the nation and last week against Oklahoma they gave up 124 yards on the ground. The Longhorns have to find a way to defend the run and if they cannot their will be a lot of pressure on their offense to light up the scoreboard.

The Longhorns’ strength on offense is the aerial attack, which ranks 53^rd in the nation led by QB Garrett Gilbert (1,151 yards 4 TD). Gilbert threw for 266 yards last week against Oklahoma, but he did not have any TD’s and he threw one pick. There will be a lot of pressure on him to move the chains in this game, especially if the Texas D cannot stop the Huskers from running the ball. The Huskers have the nation’s best pass defense only giving up an average of 128 passing yards per game.

Texas is not a great rushing team, but they may have to pick up some yards on the ground to have any chance to win this game.

The Longhorns were penalized 9 times for 81 yards and they committed 2 turnovers against Oklahoma and they cannot play sloppy against Nebraska and if they turn the ball over they will be hard pressed to leave Lincoln with a win.

Nebraska’s rushing offense will be just too much for Texas to handle, as the Huskers will control the game, as well as the clock, by running the ball all game long. Texas will lose for a third straight game, as Nebraska will come out at home and easily win this game and cover the 9.5-point spread.

Betting Trends:

Texas is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record and has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 Big 12 games.
Nebraska is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record, 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite, and has an Under record of 9-3 in their last 12 home games.

In the last 7 games between these 2 teams the home team is 5-1-1 ATS.

Pick: Nebraska -9.5

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Jason Green is a new contributor to Cappers Picks and is hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of  Cubs fans.