ESPN Thursday Night Football + Big East Preview – South Florida vs West Virginia
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Bulls vs Mountaineers Matchup
Date/Time: Thursday, Oct 14 7:30 p.m. (ET)
Venue: Mountaineer Field, Morgantown WV.
Broadcast: ESPN
Bulls at Mountaineers Lines by Sportsinteraction.com
Pointspread: Mountaineers -11 ½
Over/Under: 43
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The South Florida Bulls travel north to Morgantown to take on the No. 25 West Virginia Mountaineers in a Big East showdown this upcoming Thursday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
South Florida put any hopes of a Big East title in serious jeopardy with an ugly 13-9 loss at home to Syracuse last week. The Bulls were a eight-point home favorite and the total stayed well ‘under’ the 54 point line. South Florida had won the previous five games in this series by a combined score of 174-53, but it had no answer for the Orange’s much improved running game and stingy defense. QB B.J. Daniels did not help the Bulls cause by completing just 9-of-23 attempts for 124 yards. He threw two interceptions and was sacked four times.
The loss drops South Florida to 3-2 straight-up on the year and 2-3 against the spread. They covered as a 21 ½ point home favorite in a 31-3 win over Florida International two weeks ago, but lost on the road to Florida 38-14 as a 14 ½ point underdog. They also failed to cover as a 27 ½ point home favorite in a 24-12 win over Western Kentucky.
West Virginia rebounded from a tough 20-14 loss to No. 9 LSU two weeks ago as a 9 ½ point road underdog with a solid 49-10 win over UNLV as a 26 ½ point home favorite.
The win moved the Mountaineers back into the AP top 25 at No. 25. QB Geno Smith led the way in the win over the Rebels, throwing for 220 yards and three TD’s with no interceptions. WR Brad Starks was on the receiving end of all three of those scores and RB Noel Devine added two more on the ground. Devine ended the day with 84 yards on just three first half carries.
The Mountaineers are now 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS on the year and have established themselves as the team to beat this year in the Big East. This will be their first conference game of the season, but they have wins over Maryland 31-17 from the ACC and Marshall 24-21 in OT from the MAC.
South Florida is 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games. They Bulls are 0-3 SU in their last three games on the road and 1-2 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of their last six games overall.
West Virginia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games and 6-4 ATS. The Mountaineers are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six home games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of their last 10 games overall.
Head-to-head, South Florida has won three out of the last four games SU and is 4-0 ATS. Last year the Bulls won 30-19 as a 2 ½ point home favorite and the year before they lost 13-7, but covered as a seven-point road underdog. The Mountaineers are clearly the better team this season, but 11 ½ points may be a bit too much of spread between these two teams. West Virginia gets the win outright, but fails to cover the spread.
Betting Trends:
South Florida is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
South Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
West Virginia is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of South Florida’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Florida’s last 5 games when playing West Virginia
West Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of West Virginia’s last 5 games when playing South Florida
West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing South Florida
The Pick: South Florida +11 ½
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David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.
One reply on “USF vs. West Virginia Week 7 Gambling Preview & Pick”
I like West Virginia laying the points at home in this match up. After last week’s terrible loss for South Florida at the hands of Syracuse, it really doesn’t get much worse. This line should be at least 14 points so jump on it at 10. Look forward to a good Big East showdown!